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Zadina

hearthstone Hearthstone Community Contribution: Comparing to Pros Experiment

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A Hearthstone player called Kjellstroem has uploaded a video of an experiment he conducted. He used 30-minute VODs from 5 professional players and he made a comparison of his decision on a specific turn versus the professional players' decision. His conclusions are quite interesting.

 

Kjellstroem uploaded his video on Reddit, where he received a lot of upvotes and positive responses. A quick explanation of the experiment: Kjellstroem chose five 30-minute VODs of five professionals playing five different decks (Thijs with a Druid, Lifecoach with a Rogue, Kolento with a Zoolock, SuperJJ with a Freeze Mage and Brian Kibler with a Patron Warrior).

 

Before each "real" decision Kjellstroem paused the game and made sure to decide exactly how he would play it before he resumed the game. A "real" decision is anything like the mulligan, playing a 2-drop in turn 2 instead of hero powering or adjusting a play after an RNG event, like a Knife Juggler juggle. Kjellstroem considered as "agree" any turn where he had made the exact same decision as the respective professional player and as "disagree" any turn where the decision was different, even if it meant playing the same card but doing a different trade.

 

Kjellstroem didn't focus so much on his own choices versus the choices of the 5 top players, but he emphasised on the conclusions of his experiment. He found out that the professional disagreed with his decisions 40% of the time, quite a big percentage. Around 40 times the profesionnals' play was correct/better than his, 20 times it was very close, while only 6-7 times the professionals actually made a mistaken play. This led Kjellstroem to conclude that being a good player is mostly a matter of skill, not RNG.

 

Obviously, some decks have more possible decisions than others. A Freeze Mage is much more straightforward than a Zoolock in late game. Last but not least, it is now scientifically proven that Lifecoach plays slower than other Hearthstone professionals!

 

 

Kjellstroem talks a bit slowly, but he explains everything quite clearly. You can also follow the relevant Reddit thread here. Finally, you can do the experiment for yourself, if you have the time, and share your results in the comments below!

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