How many loot boxes in Overwatch to get all cosmetic collectibles?

[Damien 1,514]

So, I've been wondering how many loot boxes one would need to open in Overwatch to get all of the collectibles.

I know the loot system for loot boxes is not exactly random, because they add conditions to make sure you get legendaries regularly, but I had to use some values. I found http://www.pcgamesn.com/overwatch/overwatch-loot-legendary-skin-chance and https://www.reddit.com/r/Overwatch/comments/4mbpz9/loot_box_drop_rate_1000_boxes_sample_size/

From this, I decided to use the following values:

• Common: 58.5%
• Rare: 31.5%
• Epic: 7.5%
• Legendary: 2.5%

Next I wrote a script in ruby to run simulations and I found that you need to open 924 lootboxes to get all collectibles. At this point, you don't have them all, but you're left with enough credits (almost 37,000) to buy the remaining ones. I got the numbers by taking the average from 10,000 simulations. Obviously, I'm not counting those that you can only obtain through an achievement.

There's one thing I wasn't too sure about. There seems to be 23 paying sprays per heroes and 27 generic paying sprays that you equip on all heroes. Can anyone confirm?

I'll update my script and the value as I get more refined data about the loot system.

 

 

[Orthios 271]

I saw something about this last night on reddit, and the grand total was 888 loot boxes required to get everything, and that was accounting for duplicates and the fact that you can't buy player icons with credits.  https://www.reddit.com/r/Overwatch/comments/4o1isd/you_need_to_unbox_approximately_888_loot_crates/ is the article.  Note that he included the chances for getting coins and duplicates in a box as well.

[Damien 1,514]

I think my method of simulating is a lot more solid than his (it's the rawr vs simc fight all over again and we all know who won that one :p). I've just noticed that I'm missing player icons, so I'll be adding them.

[Orthios 271]

Either way, it's a lot of loot boxes needed.

[Damien 1,514]

5 minutes ago, Orthios said:

Either way, it's a lot of loot boxes needed.

You just need to reach level 100 9 times.

[demonardvark 556]

lets not forget though once they start adding the new characters ( i think right now like 3 are in que that we know of) that's going to add more stuff needed and more loot boxes to buy/earn

 

[PaasHaaS 81]

Very interesting project, I'd quite like to see the code/logic/math behind that :p

Some potential issues/questions that spring to mind:

• Is every box guaranteed 1 item of rare or better quality?
• What about the drop rate of credits? Or did you add these in their respective quality?
• Can the same item drop twice in the same lootbox?
• When do the odds of getting a double increase? After generating all 5 items from a lootbox, or after each single item in the lootbox has been generated?
• Did you factor in the pity timers?
• How is the drop rate for a legendary 2.5% when the pity timer is on 25 = 4%, likewise for rares where the droprate is 7.5% yet a pity timer on 10 = 10% minimum. If you're not factoring in ptty timers then I'd assume it's far more correct to use the 4% and 10% values as they'll be much closer to reality.

Edited June 16, 2016 by PaasHaaS

[Damien 1,514]

Obviously, I don't have answers to all these questions, so my simulation is a lot more basic :p