The fourth week of Mythic+ this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. The total drop-off of 11.91% was slightly higher this week. For Chinese servers alone, it sits at 9.65%. The other four regions, at 13.87%, are closer to the long-term average for most seasons, around 15%.
Overall, the shift towards higher keys continues, and success rates for dungeons are on an upward trend. Keep in mind that nerfs for Ara-Kara and Halls of Atonement weren’t active in week 4.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
As usual, we’re limiting the general comparison between seasons to the four regular regions. A drop-off of 13.87% is unlike in to the most recent seasons. Season 2, however, had a dungeon event in week 4 and Season 1 saw major nerfs, resulting in higher engagement. We’ve yet to see how a dungeon week will impact Season 3. And for week 5, we see a bit of stagnation so far.
When including the Chinese data, we see a continuing trend. Their region is getting more dominant from week to week. The 50% point might be reached before or once the Turbo Boost starts. For now, the global average weekly drop-off seems closer to 10%.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The overall split hasn’t changed much compared to last week. The ranking only changed slightly. But this is quite usual, given how close their total run numbers are. Ara-Kara is still far behind with 10%. The value is dragged down once again by the split in China, where Ara-Kara sits at just 9.18%. But for week 5, this value might finally improve due to the recent nerfs.
The overall success rate (82.85%) went up by 1.41 points. Eco-Dome was still the easiest dungeon for most, with 89.10%. But both parts of Tazavesh have caught up quite well. Gambit (87.94%) was just ahead of Streets (87.67%). It seems that most players have adjusted to this dungeon within the last few weeks. Quite behind, we see the Dawnbreaker (82.91%) and Priory (82.29%). The first is still suffering from collision bugs with the airships. The second is still quite rough during Fortified first weeks at key level 7-9.
The Lower End is Still Behind Despite Improvements
Operation Floodgate (80.50%) isn’t really gaining ground. Getting used to the new meta route might be partially responsible for that. Halls of Atonement (77.20%) had not seen changes during week 4 yet, and is already looking much better in week 5. And Ara-Kara was once again dead last. 72.84% was quite the step-up from last week. But even early week 5 numbers show Ara-Kara still lags well behind.
Split Across All Key Levels
70.51% of all keys were done at key level 10 or higher. 34.13% on level 10 alone. And level 12 saw more runs than 11 for the first time. This entire development is once again boosted by Chinese metrics, but not with the same effect. On Chinese servers, 77.49% of all keys are done at 10 or higher, while the value for the other four regions is just 64.13%. That value is still quite high since we only saw S2 cross this threshold for the four regular regions in week 8.
Level 12’s dominance over 11 is even more noticeable outside of China, though. We are looking at 10.93% for level 12 and 8.8% for level 11 compared to 13.68% and 14.67%. On the other hand, these numbers show just how much further Chinese players are pushing into higher keys, completing 60.36% of all +11s last week. Gilded crests were obtained from 86.34% of all runs. For China, that value is already at 91.10%. We also saw the first +20 keys during week 4. Meanwhile, S2 and S1 only saw keys top out at level 18 and 16 in the same week.
Success rates have gone up for nearly every key level up to 12. The drop-off from level 6 to 7 is still steep, with 8.87 points. Meanwhile, the step up from 9 to 10 is already seeing an increase of 2.75 points. The regional gap is striking once again. For the four regular regions, the value for key level 10 is 88.22%. In China, it is just 82.01%. Once the data from week 5 is fully available, we’ll be looking at the individual dungeons at higher key levels. Unless there are even more nerfs coming with the next reset.
Conclusion and Week 5 Forecast
Even without the nerfs for Halls and Ara-Kara, week 4 was already trending upward. The push towards higher keys at this rate raises questions about M+ as a source of Runed Crests. But this might also be the role that delves fit into for now. Capping out all slots on the hero track is done rather quickly if you get higher item level basic loot early in the season.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, the comparable numbers are looking quite good. The US is slightly behind by about 4% and the EU and China are ahead of last week by 1.1% and 3.2%. That’s an unusual pattern, especially since without any major events, the weekly change is usually a regular drop-off. A look at the details next weekend could add some more context.
