The seventeenth week of Mythic+ in this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. With the final Omnium Folio upgrade unlocked, you would expect more activity, especially for high-end keys. But in week 17, activity dropped by 8.82%, a moderate decline this late in the season. At the top key levels, the focus zeroes in on title ratings. So, let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
The US servers came the closest to the global average with -7.12%, with the EU slightly milder at just -6.52%. KR showed the smallest drop-off with -1.83%, and in TW we saw a complete reversal from +12.40% in week 16 to -15.28%. In China, the decline was 11.50%, bringing their global share of all runs to just 42.81%, the lowest value in two months.
Compared to the previous seasons, MN S1 is on a similar pace with smaller fluctuations. The final dungeon event week is looking like a small final bump before we enter the final 2 weeks. The patch drop is expected to happen in the second week of August, with the end of week 20. More than 42,000,000 total runs and 4,600,000 active characters should be listed at that point.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The spread once again widened from week to week. The order also shifted again. This shuffle is a given by now, since ranks 3 and 4, as well as 5 to 7, end up just a few hundred runs apart. A major decrease once again impacted the popularity of Maisara Caverns from the Chinese Servers.
With an easier affix, the success rate rose once more by 0.59 percentage points to 93.66%. This is the highest value of the season so far. The previous high point was at 93.12%, exactly 8 weeks ago, with the same active affix combination. In addition to the switch of affixes, the final Omnium Folio also contributed to this boost. Asian servers, especially China, used to post much lower success rates. Now they are outperforming the global average, at 95.45% in week 17. From key level 13 to 23, the rates are up to 4.38 points higher than the global average.
Split Across All Key Levels
86.75% of all runs were completed at key level 10 or higher. On Chinese servers, this value stood at 92.83%. With 40.52%, the share of +10 keys in China was also a lot higher than the global value of 32.79%. New characters enter the ladder at rates similar to other regions, but in China they seem to jump straight into +10 keys. Meanwhile, the lower key levels in other regions are still used to work your way up. But WoW in China is known for a higher tendency for boosting. The distribution of keys saw a slight bump below level 10 in week 16. This seems to have travlled upward to around +10 in week 17. Meanwhile, the chasm between 16 (3,400 rating) and 21 (1% title) is forming again. During the upcoming weeks, we should see a much clearer plateau from 20 to 22.
The success rates grew, as expected, around the affix range. From level 5 to 11, we saw an increase between 1.04 and 3.00 points. Key levels 16 and 17 were also more stable, since players still want their 3,400 rating mount token. Around the 1% title cut-off, a drop of around 1 point could indicate more effort to finish runs for practice. Once we examine the data for abandoned runs of the entire season, it should be interesting to see how behavior changes around the title cut-offs over time.
Conclusion and Week 17 Forecast
Players are now circling the title and cosmetic cut-offs. Week 18 should be the usual weekly event outlier, but the established pattern of chasms and peaks will only intensify in the final weeks. And the battle for the top 1% has pushed that cut-off closer to 0.1% than in previous seasons. The gap between the cut-off points decreased by 50-100 points. There is an alternative to pushing your own rating, though. Encourage every player you know to finish at least one M+ dungeon on every one of their level 90 characters. A bloated ladder creates more title slots.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers are ahead of the previous week: up 4.96% in the US, 9.54% in the EU, and 1.29% in China. We’ll examine this further in next week’s breakdown.
