The fourth post-season week of TWW S3 is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. It was the second-to-last full week of M+ for TWW, and the global numbers were quite stable. The global drop-off of 12.50% was once again affected by a much larger drop-off in China. The other regions remained quite solid in terms of total runs, but the key level split saw a massive shift. So let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
A decline of 12.50% is usually found in a mid-season week. The regular four regions only saw a drop-off of 5.86%. Meanwhile, the activity on the Chinese servers plummeted by 26.58%. The 4 post-season weeks have been incredibly stable so far. And early numbers for week 5 confirm this trend. Looking at DF S4, which had a similar situation of Remix mode leading into a pre-patch, numbers back then were less stable. But the major nosedive during the overlap with early access will definitely repeat shortly after the last reset.
While the global share of Chinese metrics has been on a steady decline lately, a value of 26.89% marks a massive decline. Either the Titan Reforged servers have seen a lot more interest lately, or the Chinese players have hit the brakes a lot sooner than the rest of the world.
Total Runs Across All S3 Dungeons
The split across all dungeons has widened quite a bit. The most popular and least popular dungeons have moved up, respectively down, by 0.3 points. We have not heard of a return for any outdoor dungeon with skyriding yet, regarding the Midnight dungeon pool. But Dawnbreaker is a really specific case, where colliding with a moving platform got worse and worse lately.
The major decrease in the success rate is rather odd, given that Devour is an easy affix. But a look into the key level split will reveal more later on. On average, the drop was 3.4 percentage points, down from 93.91% to 90.51%. Eco-Dome (95.21%) stayed on top, ahead of Gambit (93.59%) and Streets (93.01%). The only three dungeons that dropped less than the average. Halls (91.31%) remained in its usual fourth
position. Floodgate (88.89%), Priory (88.80%), and Dawnbreaker (88.68%) could not have been any closer together. And they were once again miles ahead of Ara-Kara (83.94%).
Split Across All S3 Key Levels
Only 64.97% of all keys were completed at key level 10 and higher. A split value we haven’t seen since week 3 of this season. Key levels 10 and 12 stayed as dominant as usual. But above that, participation fell off a cliff. At 15 and above, the share dropped by 48% and the total number of runs by 40%. From 20 upward, the carryover for total runs was even smaller, ranging from 29% to just 2.26% of the previous week’s value. The impact of decreased activity in China was massive. Meanwhile, lower key levels saw up to 35% more runs.
Success rates decreased for every single key level. For the higher ones, lower participation of ambitious players is the obvious explanation. At key level 17 and upwards, the percentage values dropped by double digits. For the lower key levels, we can tie the higher activity and worse success rates to a slew of new players testing classes or engaging with the mode. Looking at newcomer and trade chat over the last few weeks, a lot of questions from new and returning players confirm this trend.
Conclusion and Post-Season Week 5 Forecast
While this season and the expansion are rapidly nearing their end, activity is up, but the participants are rotating in and out of this mode. We can only hope that the start of the next season will be a lot smoother than in S1 of DF and TWW.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers for the main regions have stayed somewhat stable for the US (+3.6%) and the EU (-2.84%), but the trend for China continues with -15.60%. We will look further into it in our last weekly breakdown of M+ in TWW next weekend.
