The first week of Mythic+ this season has gone really well, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. The report is a bit delayed because Gamescom news captured a lot of attention. In addition, the uncertainty around consistency in the Chinese data caused further delays. In general, the metrics look really good compared to previous seasons. There were and still are a few tuning issues with certain dungeons that haven’t all been addressed during this first week.
Issues With the Chinese Armory API
During WoW’s 20th anniversary in China, their armory API became accessible to RaiderIO. Updates for a big part of TWW S2 were retroactively applied, and it looked like we can count on full access to current M+ data going into the future. But this came to an abrupt halt on the last day of the ID for the Asian lockout. 16 hours before the ID reset, the access, and therefore, live updates from their API were cut off again.
Comparing activity patterns to other regions shows that about 8% of all run data from the first week is missing. In conclusion, about 125,000 runs are missing from the leaderboard. With these missing data included, the first week could have easily broken the 4,000,000-run barrier. Compared to this global number, Chinese players completed more than 40% of all keys in week 1. Furthermore, the leaderboard for active characters shows that Chinese characters, again, represent more than 40% of the global activity.
For now, we will present all data and comparisons restricted to the four remaining regions (US, EU, KR, and TW). If the API becomes fully accessible again, we will include the data in future analysis.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The split across all dungeons is a bit less balanced than during the previous season. Operation Floodgate held a larger-than-average share of keys. In TWW S2, the most popular dungeon never exceeded far beyond 14% of all runs. Early in TWW S1, we also saw Mists of Tirna Scithe standing out with almost 20% of all runs. The trinket from Floodgate is quite popular and can be a major reason to choose this dungeon. But the algorithm that determines your next keys after finishing in time may not be fully balanced.
The Rough Dungeons
TWW S3 started with the highest in-time percentage (82.82%) we have seen for a first week in the entire expansion. But Tazavesh: Streets of Wonder (72.63%), Halls of Atonement (76.43%), and Ara-Kara (79.01%) seem to be a bit overtuned. For Streets, this can be attributed to being a 5-boss dungeon. Early during the first week, the rate was as low as 55%. Two major changes to the timer, going up from 32 to 35 minutes, and several nerfs to trash and boss encounters resolved most of the issues. In addition, the timer adjustments have retroactively changed a big part of the depleted keys into timed ones.
The Middle Pack
Tazavesh: Soleah’s Gambit (81.78%), Operation Floodgate (84.00%), and Dawnbreaker (85.89%) have proven to be solid reruns so far. Gambit might have needed a bit of a refresh for a lot of players. It hasn’t been around since the absolute low point of activity during SL S3. It also received a few changes to trash pulls and the run mechanic on the first boss that no longer requires a WeakAura for PUGs.
The Easy Ones
Priory of the Sacred Flame (88.03%) benefited significantly from the major trash nerfs. This 3-boss dungeon is also a lot easier in a Tyrannical first week. Eco-Dome Aldani (92.44%) feels almost too easy. It outperforms even Darkflame Cleft, which was rather simple last season. But in this case, again, a 3-boss dungeon is noticeably easier when Fortified only activates at key level 10.
Split Across All Key Levels
As expected, the focus during the first week lies within the lower key bracket. Yet still 18.88% of all keys were already done at key level 10. All lower keys represent 76.18% of the total amount. This ratio may almost flip by the end of the season, especially once the Turbo Boost becomes active again. Total numbers for +2 Keys usually outperform any other level in the first week. But this time, players progressed towards the higher end a lot faster.
Even though Ascendant is usually the most frustrating affix, resulting in slightly lower success rates, the impact at level 4 can’t be seen. This may simply be the result of players rushing through the lower key levels. The impact of the key level 7 affix (Tyrannical) is measurable but smaller than in previous seasons. The same can be said about the jump from key level 9 to 10.
First Weeks of All TWW Seasons
With the start of The War Within, we saw the rework of the affix system as well as the key level squish in full swing. When comparing the first week of all three seasons, we see a clear upward trend in success rates. The dip during TWW S2 is tied to a rather harsh tuning that got corrected with that first week. In terms of total run numbers, TWW S3 can’t quite reach the value of TWW S1. On the other hand, the number of completed +10 keys has more than doubled from season to season.
But given the changes to crest rewards, a lower number of runs can still result in more upgrades. The curves across all key levels also show a clear trend towards early access to the highest item level. While in S1, players had to adjust to the new affixes at key level 4, their impact has nearly disappeared in S2 and S3. Tyrannical and Fortified are less of a stepping stone in the later seasons. The upticks towards 100% on the last key level in S1 and S2 are insignificant. They only represent run numbers in the single digits.
With every season, we basically see a jump of two key levels. And the amount of high-end keys is increasing 10-fold, if not more, each time. All of this reflects the implementation and refinement of a new system throughout the expansion. It will be interesting to see how the metrics progress in the next expansion. There are no major changes announced for now. So hopefully the start into Season 1 of Midnight can be a bit smoother than it was in TWW S1.
Conclusion and Week 2 Forecast
Season 3 of TWW is off to a great start. A few more changes to Halls of Atonement and Ara-Kara, as well as further boss tuning in Streets for Tyrannical weeks, would be nice. Though formats have been changing over the years, and Mythic+ is no longer as important for the average player, TWW S2 was seen by many as the best season to date. But TWW S3 could also claim this title if it continues like this.
This update comes a bit late in the second week of the season. And right when finishing this article, the Chinese armory API has opened up again. It will take a while for the updates in week 1 to trickle in, so in the future, the week-by-week comparisons could include Chinese data. Assuming they remain consistent. For week 2, the hourly numbers have dropped by 16% and 20% for the US and EU. If the numbers for China are fully available, the round-up for week 2 should include them later this week.
