Mythic+ Is Bleeding Runs as the Season Winds Down

The twenty-second week of Mythic+ in this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. After the dungeon event week, activity in Retail M+ has once again returned to the levels of the previous weeks. The worst affix combination in the rotation had its last appearance before the Midnight nerfs. And Remix M+ continued its downward trajectory, with the focus shifting more and more toward cosmetics. So let’s look at the details.

Weekly Total Run Performance Compared to Other Seasons

The global number of completed runs dropped by 17.41% compared to the previous week. This time, the trend was similar for all major regions. A 17.04% drop on the Chinese servers compared to 17.63% in other regions. Interest in Retail has been lower in China ever since the Titan Reforged servers opened. For the regular four regions, the numbers have been rather stable for the last six weeks, with the dungeon event being the exception. Compared to the previous seasons, we can see a similar trend for the final third in almost all of them.

The share of Chinese metrics has stabilized around the seasonal low point at 38.51%. During the final week, this may not change much. And it will be interesting to see how dominant the region will be once the first season of Midnight starts.

Remix M+ saw the lowest number of runs for the entire season so far. The drop-offs are not that massive anymore, but they are consistent with 16% in week 14. And with the efforts to secure cosmetic rewards during the final week, it might not drop much further.

Total Runs Across All S3 Dungeons

The dungeon split and order have not changed at all compared to the previous week. The impact of the worst affix combination once again led to a nosedive in the success rate. At just 86.59%, this was the worst outcome in more than three months.

Gambit (91.41%) suffered less than Eco-Dome (91.37%) since its trash is rather simple and pulls are more compact. Streets (89.97%) benefited once more from being a 5-boss dungeon with less trash in general. Halls (87.66%) remained in the upper half, but the big pulls in the first half of the dungeon only got more complicated with this affix combination. Dawnbreaker (85.30%) was once more ahead of Priory (83.34%). The latter is a perfect example of how Fortified first and Ascendant can ruin trash pulls for less experienced players. Floodgate (82.41%) also dropped off a lot, but still stayed 4 percentage points ahead of Ara-Kara (78.42%).

Split Across All S3 Key Levels

69.40% of all runs were completed at key level 10 or higher. Key level 10 remained the most relevant with 24.19%. But unlike most key levels below and above it, it dropped in relative share compared to the previous week. Total run numbers only increased for key levels 22 and 23, where the high-end teams wanted to solidify their title ambitions and break personal records. The general split shifted towards key levels 8 and 9, where players farm some early gilded crests and key levels 13 to 15. Those are around or just above the KSH rating threshold for this season’s recolored mount. The activity in the highest four key levels was a lot more stable than in previous weeks.

We can only hope that the changes to the Ascendant affix turn things around in S1 of Midnight. Once more, the success rate for the lower key levels tanked across the board. The drop-off for most key levels between 4 and 11 was more than 4 percentage points compared to the previous week. 

Legion Remix Dungeon Split

Similar to the Retail dungeon roster, the order and split barely changed compared to the previous week. Court of Stars has stood out for the entire duration of Remix M+ with the worst success rate. Maybe the old affixes are too punishing here, or it is simply not intuitive for players who have not done it in a long time.

Legion Remix Key Level Split

While the record runs at level 200 and higher in week 13 were quite suspicious, teams managed to almost break 200 once again. But the highest key was an overtime level 199, and only level 196 saw a timed run. For the final week, we have not seen anything going past 198 so far.

Mythic+ Run Data by RaiderIO

78.54% of all keys were done at key level 20 and higher. Focus once again shifted toward the level 20 to 50 range. Cosmetic rewards drew a lot more attention than pure power grind. That grind also faced new competition from accelerated infernal spawns in the open world during the final week of Remix. Key level 20 saw its share rise from 6.18% to 7.17%. With that, it was the most important key level for the first time in all of Remix. Meanwhile, the other capstone reward levels also gained, but not as much. Level 30 increased from 6.37% to 6.63%, Level 40 from 3.54% to 3.77%, and Level 50 from 2.20% to 2.58%.

Conclusion and Week 23 Forecast

With both versions of M+ coming towards their end, the shift towards cosmetic rewards only increased. This pattern should also repeat for the final week. The latest changes to vault rewards on Beta have players worried, though. The long-term incentive to push for higher keys in general is gone again. So far, the developers have not explained this change in direction.

As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers for the main regions are on a slight decline. -5.4% for the US, -9.6% for the EU, and -13.5% for China. It is not as severe as it had been in other final weeks. With the pre-patch, players will definitely test class changes in M+ until Midnight releases. Within the final weeks of this expansion, our breakdown articles will go through seasonal comparisons and analytics for affix tuning, as well as high-end dungeon balance.