The sixteenth week of Mythic+ in this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. After Timewalking got a lot of attention the previous week, fresh level 90 characters made their way into M+ after the reset. While a drop-off of just 3.34% was noticeable, higher activity in low-level keys balanced out the decline outside of the focal points for cosmetics. So, let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
The three major regions reflected the overall downward trend with -3.19% for the US, -4.55% for the EU, and -3.47% for CN. The two smaller regions, though, rebounded from week 15. KR saw an uptick of 1.48%, and TW, which saw the biggest drop in week 15 with -22.06%, saw an increase of 12.09%.
Compared to previous seasons, MN S1 manages to stay ahead of TWW S3 for the regular regions in terms of absolute numbers. This season is winding down a bit quicker in general. The 12.1 PTR preview and the expected end of the season within 3 weeks are enough signs that players are packing it up. With just 20 weeks, this will be one of the shortest regular seasons in a long time. By now, we are already past 40,000,000 total runs, thanks in part to the inclusion of full metrics from China.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The spread across all dungeons widened again compared to week 15. This can be attributed to a loss of interest in Maisara Caverns in China. The separation between rank 1, ranks 2-4, 5-7, and 8 has become quite clear over time. For most seasons, this distribution seems like a natural conclusion. Players figure out which dungeon is clearly the easiest to run and farm, increasing the focus on it. The opposite end of the spectrum then also sees the opposite effect of clearly falling behind.
Despite the worst affix, Ascendant, the overall success rate this week was among the highest in the season, increasing by 0.13 percentage points from last week to 93.09%. This was due to Omnium Folio progress boosting performance in higher keys. The affix still dragged down dungeons that consist of chain pulls and constant movement. The usual result is that orb spawns fall behind and are not cleared completely.
Split Across All Key Levels
86.74% of all keys were completed at key level 10 or higher. This was yet another decline from last week’s value. Fresh level 90 characters should keep flooding the low-level keys for the rest of the Turbulent Timeways event. Not only did the relative share increase for key levels 4 to 9, but levels 6, 7, and 9 also saw growth in absolute run numbers. This happened only at +20 and above. While levels 20 (2.87%) and 21 (2.49%) are the focal point of securing a top 1% rank, +16 also had solid metrics (4.36%) for a while. It remains to be seen if activity stays this high around these two peaks for the final weeks of the season. With the final Folio upgrade in week 17, the high-end keys will definitely see growing numbers until the very end.
As mentioned above, the success rate took a slight dive for the affix key level range from 5 to 11. The decline varied between 0.82 and 1.57 percentage points. While many changes to dungeons have happened on PTR so far, the affixes seem untouched. The overall in-time percentage saw a clear boost for every key level above 11. Almost all levels improved between 1.05 and 2.17 percentage points. The final Folio upgrade could also bump up this metric.
Conclusion and Week 17 Forecast
The slow decline towards the final week of MN S1 will continue. But the influx of fresh level 90 characters, the final push for 3,400 rating, the 1%, and 0.1% rewards should push the season beyond 42 million runs and 4.5 million active characters. The focus for PTR feedback seems to be on general dungeon design so far. The easiest M+ season of all time could be followed by a second one with harder tuning. So far, the success rates have only ever improved from the start to the finish of an expansion.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers for the major regions continue to display a decline. The US servers are behind by 5.52%, the EU by 6.81%, and CN by 8.63%. Next weekend, we’ll have another detailed breakdown.
