The eleventh week of Mythic+ in this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. We once again saw the common trend after the dungeon event week. -21.50% activity overall looks like the usual drop-off. Patch 12.0.7 will go live in week 13. High-end ambitions are reduced until the season’s final upgrades are unlocked. So let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
The second major drop-off of the season varied slightly from region to region. The US was the biggest outlier with -25.15%, ahead of KR with -24.39%, and the EU (-21.64%) and TW (-21.07%). Chinese metrics dropped by just 19.54%, increasing their weekly global share to 46.60%.
When comparing the four regular regions to previous seasons, MN S1 fell below TWW S1 and S2 in absolute numbers. Given that TWW S2 and S3 had their Turbo Boost event in week 11, MN S1 once again showed the largest relative drop since week 1. All in all, the downward trend still aligns with the graph for TWW S1. In the following weeks, the short-term metric boosts from the Turbo Boost events in previous seasons once again wore off. The effect of Patch 12.0.7, Raid, and Omnium Folio might slow the end-of-season decline.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The split across all dungeons, as well as their order, remained the same once more. As mentioned in previous breakdowns, the most and least popular outliers continue to grow further apart. The impact of the Chinese metrics is increasing week by week, and over there, this pattern is much more pronounced.
The decrease in success rate by 0.20 points down to 92.84% can be attributed to the affix changes, but also to less ambition in higher key levels. The order of all dungeons according to their in-time percentage did not change. The impact of the affix changes is getting more and more neutered by higher item level. Nexus-Point (-0.43) was already the major outlier when this affix combination occurred, 8 weeks ago. The share of runs with affixes (41.46%) also decreases each week. Item-level boosts from the 12.0.7 raid and the Omnium Folio could bring the overall in-time percentage to a new, ridiculously high value.
Split Across All Key Levels
90.04% of all keys were completed at key level 10 and higher. A rebound upward after the dungeon week, with fewer low-level keys. +12 (23.05%) might not surpass +10 (30.82%) as the most important key level this season. The crest grind has been vastly reduced by the increased alt catch-up and the item upgrades for weapons and trinkets. So by now, 10s benefit more from fast vault runs and bonus rolls. The overall decline in run metrics was highest in the lower key levels. But +13 to +17 also saw higher-than-average drop-offs. Growth in absolute numbers was restricted to key levels 21 and above.
The overall fluctuation in success rates was quite clear for key levels 5 to 11, dropping by almost a percentage point. Affix changes still have some impact, and Devour might be the 2nd worst this season. The trend of less activity also correlates with lower rates up to the mentioned 21+ range. But this pattern stems from the EU and US impact on the global metrics. On the CN servers, the success rates were much more stable week by week. And only at the lower (2 to 5) and higher (18 to 22) ends, we saw major dips compared to week 10.
Conclusion and Week 12 Forecast
Metric patterns like this week’s represent the new end-of-season activity. Key level 16 should become a regular peak for a few seasons, since many players have missed out on several mounts. The 12.0.7 raid loot and Omnium Folio might shake things up for the final weeks. But this pattern won’t repeat in the next season. 12.1.5 will already give us a 2nd raid, at the tail-end of gear progression. And the Omnium Folio will be active for the rest of the expansion. So the end of MN S2 might be much more barren.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers for the major regions are showing a much smaller drop-off than last week. The US servers sit at just -5.67%, EU at -10.03%, and CN at -8.41%. We’ll look at more of that in the next breakdown.
