The tenth week of Mythic+ in this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data provided by Raider.IO. In a dungeon event week, numbers usually stabilize compared to the previous week. But this time, the mid-season downward trend was not affected by this extra incentive at all. The result was a 13.60% drop in activity. Bonus rolls and an easier season have players finishing their gear progression much faster. And the announcement of 12.0.7 in about 1.5 weeks could also put a stop to high-end ambitions. Let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
The global drop-off is once again somewhat split between Western and Asian regions. EU players, who started with the highest metrics in week 1, are showing the least enthusiasm by now with -17.06%. The US follows with -15.37%. China (-10.91%), Taiwan (-8.34%), and Korea (-6.79%) are experiencing a much slower decline. As a consequence, the Chinese metrics already had a global share of 45.44% in week 10. Maybe in the final weeks, this can grow towards 50%.
Compared to previous seasons, MN S1 is still keeping up with the general trend. The lead in absolute numbers might end by next week, though. Week 11 is trending a lot lower so far. TWW S1, at least on paper, benefited from delayed improvements, which softened the decline later into the season. And TWW S2 had a much more delayed progression boost with the Turbo Boost back then. MN S1 is still on track to go way beyond 40 million total runs. The weekly run numbers should bottom out between 800k and 1 million.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The split across all dungeons, as well as their ranking, did not change compared to week 9. Maisara Caverns trailing behind the rest is much more pronounced on the Chinese servers. There it sat at 9.40% behind Magisters’ Terrace at 11.27%. Given that their metrics have a growing impact on global numbers, this pattern will only solidify over time.
The overall success rate slightly decreased by 0.07 points to 93.04%. The order of the dungeons for in-time % did not change. The biggest impacts came from worse performance at +12 and +16, along with slightly higher activity in lower key levels. The effects of the rotating affixes barely shifted the numbers for the first few levels. Once the swap of Tyrannical and Fortified occurs, the differences from the previous week are more noticeable. Dungeons like Spire, Academy, and Caverns have rougher boss tuning.
Split Across All Key Levels
89.05% of all runs were done at key level 10 and higher. This is a smaller decrease from the previous week, reflecting the grind effort of alts progressing through low-level keys for their weekly quest. +10 remained the most popular key level (29.93%) for the combination of crests, bonus rolls, and fast vault entries. +12 continues to catch up to +10 over the long term, but only truly matches it in China.
The global share per key level increased for levels 2-11, clearly reflecting alt activity. Only key level 19 and above saw any growth compared to week 9 for the higher end. And this usual week-by-week increase is once again receding. Either because gear and rating progression have reached a limit or because it’s not worth it until 12.0.7 is out. The bump around +16 remained quite pronounced, though Chinese metrics clearly boost it. The top key level of 24 might be surpassed before 12.0.7 is out. On paper, a +24 10% below the timer is an indicator for a potential +25 run with 10% more HP and damage output.
The overall success rate shifted only slightly compared to last week. The switch to Voidbound led to a drop of just 0.30 points at key level 6, but for levels 7 to 9, the impact of Tyrannical first brought the percentage down by more than 1 point. This chasm has existed for almost every season so far, and we have never seen any acknowledgement from the devs.
Conclusion and Week 10 Forecast
As much as things have improved in general for power and rating progression, the devs still have to solve the puzzle of a smooth progression throughout the season. Stop-and-go additions of player power feel odd after a while. The old pattern of push-weeks has been eliminated a long time ago, and probably nobody misses it. Maybe a general trade-off mechanic for increasing key levels could keep things more interesting than simply “number goes up”.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, hourly numbers for the major regions are falling a lot faster than in previous weeks. -27% for the US, -22% for the EU, and -19% for China. A very easy season leads to early inflation and a larger correction toward the end. A more detailed breakdown awaits, as per usual, next weekend.
