The sixth week of Mythic+ this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data from Raider.IO. After the major drop-off in week 5, week 6 saw almost no change, with a slight improvement of 0.09%. The constant back and forth between weeks with incentives for and against M+ is bending a regular decline out of shape. We have yet to see if the upcoming weekly bonus rolls and the item upgrades will add or subtract from the M+ activity. So let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
With such a small change of +0.09% compared to week 5 on a global scale, the regional changes were also just landing above and below the line. The EU (-2.54%) and US (-1.24%) servers fell behind the Asian servers, as expected. TW (+5.70%), KR (+5.09%), and CN (+1.57%) all remained positive.
Compared to the previous seasons, the MN S2 is still behind in absolute and relative numbers. This might continue for a while, since farming for your vault isn’t really rewarding in M+. A viable alternative by now is farming heroic Venomous Abyss to use your bonus roll on the final two bosses for some 334 loot. And while you are doing so, you fill the slots for next week’s vault; done in less than two hours. M+ is still somewhat useful to get the remaining Myth Crests each week, if you aren’t raiding mythic by now. But with the current gear progression, mythic raiding is gaining relevance.
The New Keystone Myth Cut-Off
There is a scenario where players who used to focus heavily on M+ have gotten most of their desired heroic raid loot. They farm the upgrades to 340 in M+. So while the upcoming weeks might see a stronger decline, the second half of the season might be more stable. Especially since the Keystone Myth achievement for the mount or mount token has been raised to a 3,600 rating. This might be an overcorrection, though. 3,600 rating was above the top 5% for EU and US in MN S1. Right now, the top keys are slightly ahead of MN S1, but the group performances are boosted by a comparatively higher ilvl from mythic raiding and the vault changes. At +23, we see Chinese groups timing keys with an average of 336.5, with members that are close to BIS, and an EU group with 327.5 just above the timer.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The split across all dungeons barely moved. Their order once again only swapped from rank 3 to 5. Murder Row and Altar still seem to be quite established for fast and easy crests, as well as a few BIS items. The Blinding Vale might remain the least popular dungeon for the rest of the season.
The affix change to Voidbound brought the success rate back up by 1.27 points. Murder Row (94.10%) kept a comfortable lead. Kings’ Rest (93.05%) and Temple (92.49%) did not benefit as much from the affix change. With their rather linear and lengthy design, badly timed Voidbound add spawns can really drag out the run time. Voidscar Arena (92.02%) also has this issue between the first and second boss. Den of Nalorakk (90.40%), Blinding Vale (89.89%), Altar of Fangs (89.64%), and Ruby Life Pools (89.44%) saw above-average improvements, which narrowed the gap between the easiest and hardest dungeon.
Split Across All Key Levels
85.27% of all keys were completed at key level 10 or higher. An improvement over the last week, but already falling behind MN S1 in week 6. From last week, +12 gained in total numbers (+6.35%) and relative share (+4.39%); +10 lost in both cases (-6.07% and -4.31%). Compared to MN S1 week 6, these values are even more extreme. Key level 10 lost 47.42% in total runs and 24.16% in relative share. Totals for +12 fell by just 4.19%, and the relative share grew by 38.19%. As mentioned above, more and more players use M+ to fill the crest cap, but not the vault. From +14 upward, growth remained but slowed down. The potential peak of +16 started building, but with the shift towards 3,600 for Keystone Myth, +18 is the new goalpost.
The overall success rate bounced back to 91.48%. Only key levels 18, 19, and 21 saw slight decreases compared to week 5. The biggest improvements, as always, showed in the affix key range. Especially levels 7 to 9 gained between 4.08 and 4.59 percentage points. With 96.03%, key level 10 looked quite good, but in MN S1’s week 6, that value was already higher at 96.28%. But this might also be tied to the shift away from +10 and towards +12. Here we saw a clear improvement to 92.82%, while in MN S1, that value sat at just 89.17%. The efficient farmers were missing at +10 and busy at +12. And in week 7, so far, the shift towards +12 is even more prominent. On the Chinese servers, it is already the most popular key level.
Conclusion and Week 7 Forecast
M+ in MN S2 is not doing well in comparison. The upcoming patch might mend it a bit, since all players can access ilvl 340 weapons, trinkets, and necklaces over time. But M+ loot is also missing some of the insane cantrip effects. Vault loot from farming heroic or bonus rolls during those runs might still do the trick. In MN S3, the devs have to find a better balance. Maybe remove the bonus roll as an option from the vault and make it permanent from week 1. Hand out higher-quality myth track items for finishing +12 or higher in the vault, which they did during DF seasons. Or add some interesting 2-set items and bonuses to the M+ loot.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, the hourly numbers for all major regions are all falling behind at a similar rate. -13.47% for the US, -13.73% for the EU, and -12.92% for CN. The latter might drop a bit more towards the end of the ID. It started ahead of week 5 and has continuously dropped off day by day.
