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Healing Druids (Moonglow/NG) - Crit Chance

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The Value of Crit Chance as a NG Druid

The Usefulness of critical hit chance as a healer, is something where most guides find disagreement - and reasonably so. The random nature of critical hits, makes them hard to utilize consistently. Most guides tend to put them low on the priority list. With the Moonglow/NG healing build for druids, it is however usually mentioned that it has more value due to the cast time proc from natures grace. I am writing this post to help shed some light on the matter.

There are three things that should be noted: (1) The gains from critical hits depends on the amount of healing power that the player has (2) The usefulness of crit depends on the raid composition and (3) with NG the gains from crit depends on the level of crit chance.

A few years ago, i played moonglow/NG druid in a fairly serious raiding guild while i were writing my masters thesis in econometrics. As a wierd way of procrastinating, i did a simulation study on the value of crit chance to healingpower for a moonglow/NG druid. A simulation study seemed the easiest way to handle it, as a probability distribution of the healingoutput of a Moonglow/NG druid spamming HT through a given timespan depends on a sequence of correlated and uncorrelated variables. Namely the amount of heals cast in a certain timespan, depends the amount of crits which in turn affects the total amount healed. Regardless... In a simmulation of 10 million observations of 25 seconds of  casting HT rank 4 (most commonly used healing spell) i created a set of multipliers that can be used to calculate the value of 1 pct. crit, measured in healingpower, given the average healing of a given HT spell and the corresponding healingpower-coefficient of that rank of HT. From these (fairly massive tables) i created a set of heuristics that can be used to compare the value of crit chance.

Healpower Full effect (MG/NG) NG Procc alone (MG/NG) Deep Resto
600 7.4 2.0 5.5
800 8.8 2.3 6.5
1000 10.2 2.7 7.5
1200 11.5 3.1 8.5

Thus a Moonglow/NG druid with 600 healing power will obtain the equivalent of 7,4 healing power from 1 pct. spell crit, assuming that the druid always gets the full value of the critical hit. Completely discount the healing increase from the critical hit, 1 pct. crit chance grants the druid the equivalent of 2 healing power through the NG proc. This increases as the amount of healing power increases - and the value also increases in moments when the druid uses higher levels of HT rank 4. The value of these tables has to be increased slightly when the druid has more than 25 pct. spell crit (i dont even know if this is possible).

To reap the full benefit of this it requires that the druid mostly heals targets that has low enough hit points, that a critical hit from HT will not cause overhealing. In raid compositions with more healers than what is recommended, this won't be possible. I.e. in raid groups with many healers, critvalue will drop - as you will most likely not be hard pressed to keep the raid alive. In raids with few healers however, the likelihood of you drawing a benefit from the crit increases drastically (even for higher levels of heal touch). If you find yourself often forced to use Level 6-11 heal touch, the value of crit chance may effectively be double what is shown on these tables - as the value of crit scales with the amount the spell heals, and the likelihood of overhealing is much less when there is only a few healers in the raid. For raids with few healers, it is highly efficient to utilize crits in order to save mana - and a higher crit chance in general makes this easier.

I guess that is my two cents.


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