Pity Counter on Packs for Legendary Drops

[Valkyr 55]

So I came across this bit of news on Reddit and another hearthstone forum (don't know if I can name it here) But this information is pretty amazing. I am going to explain it here, along with the Reddit link at the end. You can choose to skip over the explanation and look at the bullet point summary in the end if it gets to complicated.

 

When TGT came out, people had submitted logs of their pack openings for statistical analysis. The assumption had been that there is a flat rate for a legendary being present in each pack and that rate is applied independently for each pack being opened. i.e each pack has, lets say 3% chance to spawn a legendary regardless of how many packs you have opened prior to it that have (or have not) spawned a legendary.

 

The analysis and comparison of actual in-game data revealed that this is not true. Everyone who opened 40 packs of the same type have gotten at least 1 legendary. This indicates that there is a form of Pity Counter or Pity Timer (in Diablo 3 lingo) which bumps up the legendary drop rate from a pack if you consistently don't get one. The magic number lies at 39! 39 is the maximum number of packs you can buy without getting a single legendary.

 

Furthermore,  the graph which charts the pack openings has revealed the increase in drop rates to be a gradual one rather than a spike after 39. This indicates that the Rate of Legendary drop gradually increases the more packs you open (of a particular expansion) peaking at 40 and resetting once you get one. Of coarse this doesn't mean that you can't get 2 legendaries in a row from the same pack, only that you can't get zero from 40 packs. This, however only applies to packs opened of the same type. (i.e If you open 39 classic packs without a legendary, and open a TGT pack you may not get a legendary, however your 40th classic pack will be a legendary)

 

This information applies to epics as well, the magic number in that case however, is much smaller.

Edit: according to actual number this is 10.

 

One thing to keep in mind though, is that since the data was collected post TGT, we have no Idea if this system has been in place since the dawn of man, or only after TGT, when cards decided to test how much the RNG gods love them by comparing random mana costs (talking about jousting here.) So you may be thinking that you had bought a gazillion GvG packs when it came out without getting a single legendary, and that might be true; we can't say for sure since we don't have data from those days. What we can say is that in the Post-Jousting world, this wont happen, regardless of which expansion you choose to invest in.

 

To summarize:

 

1. Rate of Legendary Card drops (or epic card drops) is not flat/fixed, but gradually increases as you open more packs of the same type without getting a legendary.  

 

2. You are bound to get a legendary on your 40th pack if you opened 39 packs of the same type without getting a single Legendary. 

 

3. Packs don't have to be opened consecutively or in single login session.

 

4. This applies to Epics as well although the magic number is much smaller for a guaranteed epic. (around 10)

 

This is actually good for the player. It counters the will of the RNG Gods and takes pity on us mere mortals. It places a condition on their power and says, "you can only be mean to these poor souls 39 times in a row, then you have to be nice, at least once". Now of coarse if the RNG gods really hate you, they will just give you Hemet Nessingwary or something you already have. All you can do at that point is take solace in the fact that you will get another legendary 39 packs later (at max).

 

Source:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3z7jyh/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_and_the_best_strategy/

Edited January 6, 2016 by Valkyr

[positiv2 950]

Yes, you can link other HS forums as well (unless you are posting the links to promote the forum). However, I believe all the information has been posted on Reddit. 

Kripp also made a video about this, so if you don't want to read it, just listen to Kripperino (no skipperino Kripperino this time).

[Valkyr 55]

Yes, you can link other HS forums as well (unless you are posting the links to promote the forum). However, I believe all the information has been posted on Reddit. 

Kripp also made a video about this, so if you don't want to read it, just listen to Kripperino (no skipperino Kripperino this time).

Oh yes. Meant to link that video too, but forgot after writing the post lol