WedgeAntilles

Opening Packs - a theory

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First: This is only a theory, I don't claim it to be true - it just seems plausible.

Theory: If you have 50+ packs, you get statistically more legendaries if you open all the packs at once instead of opening just a few packs each day.

If you open 2 packs for 25 days you opened in total 50 packs. This way you will get less legendaries (in average) then if you open 50 packs on one day.

 

4 parts:

1) Why the theory? Is there evidence? On what database do I operate?

2) Is it even possible?

3) Are there valid points for the theory?  Why should Blizzard do such a thing?

4) Conclusion

 

1)  First: The biggest problem is obviously the database. My database (just to call it this way is hillarious) is more then terrible. It is only postings by people, some youtube vids and the experience of 2 friends an me. Like I said, terrible. The database is too small, it is biased.

Nevertheless, while I took a walk today the theory started to form in my head and it seems to make sense. (Part 2+3, later).

The "database" seems to indicate, that you get more legendaries if you open lot's of packs at once.

My friends and me (non of us buys packs, that is why we open at most 3 or 4 packs a day (if we saved some). After playing since the beginning we opened around 500-700 packs (you can calculate how much gold you earn per daily quest, how much gold you spend on adventures and this way how many packs you bought.) We got between 10 and 15 legendaries. (Obviously only legendaries from cardpacks are counted, not the legendaries from adventures).

That is around 1 legendary in every 40/50th pack.

Fits with the statistic blizzard published.

But if you watch some players opening 50 packs and more, as well as reading how many legendaries player get after opening 50+ packs, you realize that there are quite a lot of player who get significantly more then 1 legendary per 40th or 50th pack.

Like I said, the database is waaaaay to small, and it is possible that more player link a vid where they are lucky / post if they were lucky. (Meaning: The database is biased:9

Maybe we can get a bigger database, maybe players can post their experience with opening 50+ packs.

The (again: bad!) database I have at the moment seems to indicate, that my theory could be true.

Let us see if this theory is just bullshit or if there are some opther points which indicate that it may be true.

 

2) Is it even possible?

Is it possible for Hearthstone to track how many packs you opend in the last hour and which cards you got? Obviously that wouldnt be hard.

Is it possible that the algorithm responsible for the randomizer takes this into account?

Yes, of course. It already does: http://www.pcgamesn.com/hearthstone-heroes-of-warcraft/hearthstone-pack-legendary-opening-chances-are-rigged-in-your-favour

That's why it is possible that there are some other (unknown) factors too.

In short: Yes, the theory is technically possible.

 

3) Are there valid points for the theory? Why should Blizzard do this?

First: Who has 50+ packs to open?

Of course if you don't pay money for cardpacks you are able to save all the cardpacks you get. Till you have 50. Or 100. Or whatever.

But most players don't do that. It is a save assumption, that around 90% or more players open packs if they have some. If you only get one or two, maybe three packs a day, you don't wait till you have 50+ until you open them. That is psychology.

But if you pay money for packs it is possible to get 50+ packs. The 50 card pack offer is even standard if a new expansion is released.

 

It is save to claim: Most players who have 50+ packs at their disposal pay for (at least some) of them.

Obviously these players are important for Blizzard - they bring money. From players like me Blizzard wouldn't be able to live. And I am grateful that player invest real money. That's why players like me can exist. If nobody would pay money, Hearthstone would not exist.

That's why it is very well, that paying players are most important for Blizzard. That is a good thing, don't get me wrong! Let's keep this thought in mind.

After you have payed for let's say 50 packs there are two ways you can open them: All at once. Or just a few each day. If you open only one or two packs a day you will have quite a long time till you opend all your packs (2 - 3 month, since you get some new packs you can by with daily quest gold).

While you still have unopened packs it is save to assume that you won't buy new packs.  You only buy new packs if you have no more to open (or if new cards are released)

If you open all your packs at once, chances are higher you buy more packs fairly soon.

Conclusion: Blizzard likes players who buy packs, and Blizzard likes players who open all the packs at once most. Because statistically those players buy most packs.

Again: That is a good thing! I don't blame Blizzard, that they like those players most who are responsible that Blizzard can even exist.

 

Now let's come to a psychological point of view:  What happens to a player if he opens 50 packs - and gets only 1 legendary?

He will be disappointed. Very disappointed. You pay 50 bucks and you only get 1 legendary? Doesn't seem like a good deal.  There is a good chance you will feel cheated. (Obviously you aren't, 1 in 50, Blizzard didn't promise more! But how you feel is not rational. You just feel disappointed.) Do players who don't feel good after they bought and opend 50+ packs buy more?

You can't answer this question for an individual. You can just take statistic + psychology.  Some are even tempted to buy new packs at once (like in a casino. You bet your money on red. You loose. You bet on red again. You loose again. Some are inclined to say: Damn, double my betting, red again, I have to win!).

More will just say: OK, never again. Maybe they are tempted half a year later to try it again - but if they get again only one legendary there is a huge chance they will never again buy packs.

 

Obviously this isn't what Blizzard wants. No company want's dissatified customers.

That's why blizzard has to do something. Paying 50 bucks for one legendary just isn't good enough.

But what can they do?  Of course they could increase the chance for a legendary in general. But: Now everybody would get way more legendaries. The 1/50 is a really good number. To state it clearly: I don't complain! I get a lot of cards, I get a few legendaries, I can craft some more. I can build a few perfect decks. But of course there are way more cool decks I'd like to try. But I just don't have the dust. That's why there is always a temptation for paying for some more cards. If I get way more legendaries I can build most of the decks, I wouldn't be tempted to buy packs.

The 1 in 50 works perfectly: I am tempted to buy packs, but I never get the impression: I can only compete if I buy something. No, I get enough dust, I just have to be very selective which decks I craft and play.

That is perfect Blizzard!

-> Just increasing the legendary chance doesn't work, since it would (significantly) reduce Blizzards income.

 

There has to be another way.

And there is. My theory. Increasing odds for legendaries if you open 50+ packs at once.

This way the buyer feels satisfied: "Hey, I got 3 legendaries from my 50 packs, that is great"

He will be open to buy more packs. Not at once, maybe next month. Or in 2. Or at least if there come new cards.

Problem solved.

(Don't get me wrong, we are talking about chances. Even a 90% chance can missfire. There is no guarantee that you get more then 1 legendary in 50. There is just a fairly high possibility for getting more)

 

But didn't I forget about buyers who don't open all the packs at once? Not exactly.

Of course those players will be a bit disappointed. But there is a huge psychological difference in opening 50 packs in a row and getting only one legendary then in opening 50 packs in 2 month and getting only one legendary. The longer it takes the softer the disappointment.

Opening 50 packs at once and not getting anything good in return is like a blow with a hammer. Short, brutal, painful.

In the timespan of 1-2 month that softens a lot.

 

 

4. Conclusion:

My theory is technically possible and from Blizzards point of view it makes a lot of sense. My "database" seems to indicate it.

To state it clearly: Blizzard doesn't cheat anybody! Nobody gets less then Blizzard promises. On the contrary. You are able to get even more then what is statistically yours.

Now I would be very interested in your thoughts.

And if you have experiences with opening a lot of packs at once. How many packs did you open? What did you get? I'd be glad to hear it.

Maybe it can put the theory on a more solid ground.

Maybe we realize that the theory is just bullshit.

 

 

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If you open 10 TGT packs, 10 classic packs, 10 old gods packs and 10 MSG packs then yes, you will get less(on average) legendaries than if you open 40 whatever packs from one set. 

If four different people will open 10 whatever packs they will get less (on average) packs than a single person buying  40 packs. It is how the pity timer works. 

It has nothing to do with favouring opening many packs at once.

 

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8 minutes ago, Strongpoint said:

If you open 10 TGT packs, 10 classic packs, 10 old gods packs and 10 MSG packs then yes, you will get less(on average) legendaries than if you open 40 whatever packs from one set. 

If four different people will open 10 whatever packs they will get less (on average) packs than a single person buying  40 packs. It is how the pity timer works. 

It has nothing to do with favouring opening many packs at once.

 

This is true. 

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4 hours ago, Strongpoint said:

If you open 10 TGT packs, 10 classic packs, 10 old gods packs and 10 MSG packs then yes, you will get less(on average) legendaries than if you open 40 whatever packs from one set. 

If four different people will open 10 whatever packs they will get less (on average) packs than a single person buying  40 packs. It is how the pity timer works. 

It has nothing to do with favouring opening many packs at once.

 

Sorry, should have made it clear that I meant opening 50 packs of the same expansion. (And with the 500-700 packs from myself, there are around 300-400 normal, 50 TGT, 100 GVG and 50 Old Golds -> Enough for the pity timer to kick in.

And the pity timer doesn't kick in after 15-20 packs. Meaning the (mediocre) database still indicates, that opening a lot of packs at once seems to yield better results.

I'd really be interested in more experiences.

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11 minutes ago, WedgeAntilles said:

And the pity timer doesn't kick in after 15-20 packs. Meaning the (mediocre) database still indicates, that opening a lot of packs at once seems to yield better results.

I'd really be interested in more experiences.

To my knowledge to Pity Timer is around 30 packs. @positiv2 you would know this better than me. 

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Just now, KingMe said:

To my knowledge to Pity Timer is around 30 packs. @positiv2 you would know this better than me. 

40 packs is the max, the probability of opening a legendary starts to quickly increase at 32-35 packs.

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9 minutes ago, positiv2 said:

40 packs is the max, the probability of opening a legendary starts to quickly increase at 32-35 packs.

That's what I thought but I wasn't 100% sure since it had been some time since we last covered that article. Thanks for the input. 

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40 packs? Has this changed? I am quite sure I opend more then 40 packs (but not much more) from Grand Tournament and I haven't a single legendary.

But the average works for me - 13 legendaries, around 500 - 600 packs -> fits.

I do know that there always was a pity timer. (Quted this timer). But nevertheless, there is still the chance that there is a second pity timer - kicking in only by opening lots of packs at once.

Has no one any experience hands on with opening 50+ packs?

 

The pity timer as described above doesn't explain how so many people get around every 15th or 20th pack a legendary. If you look an youtube you find quite a lot of opening vids. I don't claim to have watched them all, but those I watched seemed to get way more legendaries then every 30th pack. Are all of them just lucky? That is possible - but it is likely?

4 legs, 82 packs

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JMJcWohfsc

21 legs, 420 packs

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITv1-ROJ6G8

 

8 legs, 160 packs

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNQifAXa3Ug

 

38 legs - 730 packs

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aunTe0wi7Zk

27 legs, 530 packs + 18 legs, 360 packs

That are quite big numbers of opened packs, with around every 20th pack a legendary.

If I compare that with my friends / mine card openings (over the years around 500 packs / each) there is a HUGE discrepancy.

We talk about more then 3000 opened packs (over 2000 opended at once, over 1000 opened just one or two a day), the ones opening at once got around every 20th pack a legendary, we got around every 40th pack a legendary.

That is only the half, statistically definitly significant.

 

I found only one vid (just looked at the first few, not searched whole youtube^^) where 50 packs just gave 1 legendary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv5HB09duX0

 

It kind of strengthens my theory that - apart from the known Pity Timer - there is another mechanism that improves your legendary drop rate. Opening lot's of packs at once.

 

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6 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

Has no one any experience hands on with opening 50+ packs?

 

I opened 170 at once plus the packs I got from the new release quests on day one of MSoG. I got about 9 or 10 legends (3 were golden) from the 170 then 1 from the extras from the quests.  Every pack has a chance to yield a legendary but some people are less lucky than others hence the pity counter, to ensure everyone gets one at some point. I've opened packs one at a time and over the course of 20 - 30 pack I received multiple legendaries while at the same time I bought 60 and only got one. The point I'm making is, there is no secondary counter.  When you open 50+ packs at once vs 50+ pack over time, the earlier yields the latter's possible results in a shorter time frame. I know it seems that you get more from opening a lot at once but that is just coincidence. 

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