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Arena Random or Record Based?

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I know it's annoying and lame to do but I'm throwing the conspiracy card out there.  I've been playing arena for a while now with limited to positive (never dominant) success.  I average about 4-5 wins per try.  I have noticed though that when I have a good draft and deck that I am noticeably placed against Hero's that have an advantage over me.  For instance, I had a Paladin deck that drafted like gold and I won my first 8 games (none against Mage decks).  Then I played 3 mage decks in a row, all with phenomenal drafts and initial draws and I lost all 3.  Since it is obviously advantageous to have players lose quickly in the arena, this made me question whether or not the arena matchups are based on current win-loss record or completely random.  I apologize if this topic has been thoroughly discussed already, I did not have time or desire to wade through all earlier posts.

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This is unconfirmed, but the most accepted theory is that you are matched against someone who has the same record as you do, or as close as possible. If you went 8-0, your ninth game would be against someone else who went 8-0, so the chances of your opponent having a strong deck go on the more you win.


Even if this isn't the case, the other logical system would be that they use the same MMR system that is used in constructed. You get matched against someone who does generally as well as you do. If you generally do well, you'll go against others who generally do well.


Blizzard has yet to confirm the exact method of the arena MMR system, and I don't expect them to. The best we can glean from our collective experience is you won't be facing any 0-2 decks when you're at 8-0.

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Pardon my intrusion, but this is something I've wondered about myself.


I'd say that Casual matches are set up more on the model Krusinator  put first, in that it's based more on % of win/loss player history.  I think that it may also take some kind of notice about length of playing history too. or maybe it's percentiles of history.  You know?  whether you've played just one character or all of them wouldn't matter so much as how many total games you've played.


As to Arena play, I don't know about the not meeting an 8-0 deck if you're running a 2-0 deck.  My first experience (before I'd  improved my knowledge on how to draft & play arena style) was with my shiny new mage, freshly hatched from the tutorial (hadn't even developed the other characters at all.)


Well, you can just imagine my record... a solid 0-3 over several attempts (not being skillful didn't affect my stubbornness at all!)  


Needless to say I was NOT matched against other clueless 0-3 players.  It was only after I convinced myself that my lack of wins was not due to bad luck, but due to ignorance of how to build a decent deck from random cards that I started getting regular wins.  So, there really has to be more to it than matching loosers to loosers and winners to winners. 


I think there's an attempt toward that kind of matching when you play ranked.

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