Starym

Official Card Rarity Drop Probabilities from Packs

15 posts in this topic

Htyl64J.jpg

 

In compliance with China's new law that went into effect on May 1st, Blizzard have revealed the probabilities of getting specific rarities of cards from each pack opening. There was an official post on the Chinese Hearthstone site, and intrepid redditors translated it quickly, so here's the full text:

Quote

In adherence to new laws, Hearthstone is hereby declaring the probabilities of getting specific card rarities from packs, with details as below.

Note: Each Hearthstone pack contains cards of 4 different rarities.

  • RARE - At least 1 rare or better in each pack

  • EPIC - Average of 1 every 5 packs

  • LEGENDARY - Average of 1 every 20 packs

In addition, please note that as players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards of a higher quality increases in tandem.

That last line is probably referring to the often mentioned "pity timer", which was even acknowledged by the devs themselves. Whether the odds mentioned above actually include the pity timer or not is up for debate, but it seems likely that they do. And, of course, we can't be sure if the odds are the same in the Chinese version of the game as in the US/EU one, but it seems likely.

So there you go, pretty much as expected, even though they did not reveal the gold card odds. Do these line up with your own experiences or are you much more/less lucky?

Source: r/hearthstone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Epics: No idea.

Legendary: In the last 3 month: Yeah, the last 60 packs were around 3 legendaries.

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

more 1 in 35.

This is about what I have averaged mine out to, sometimes a tad sooner but that's about where it is at. Golden seems to be about every 90 packs or so but I haven't paid as much attention to that statistic as much as it's non-golden counterpart. Now that I think about it though pulling legendaries from packs is about on par with Shiny fishing on Pokemon, after 30 it's anytime now. lol 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

This is probably influenced by the absence of Pity Timer before TGT. The average should be lower in the last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this specifically stating the chances at this point in time? Could it have been different 1 month ago?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Blainie said:

Is this specifically stating the chances at this point in time? Could it have been different 1 month ago?

I'd assume it's this point in time, and onwards (unless they announce a change).

That said though, these numbers are pretty much just a confirmation of what players' data has already shown. For instance http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics. There doesn't appear to be any significant change in the proportions pre-TGT, except for golden cards.

Most of the data sets show a slightly higher incidence of legendaries than 1 in 20 packs, which suggests to me the pity timer effects isn't included in the numbers posted by Blizzard (if there's a 1 in 20 chance per pack, sometimes you'll go longer than 40 packs before getting one, so the pity timer increases the amount you get in the long run slightly).

Some people's experiences will naturally be different though, just due to luck, unless they've opened like thousands of packs by which point you're very unlikely to be far from the expected averages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 05.05.2017 at 9:57 PM, WedgeAntilles said:

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

Well, several hundreds is not a large enough sample size to expect result close to 1 in 20. To simplify lets ignore possibility of getting more than one per pack and assume that there are no pity timer and we have a flat 5% chance to get a legendary. 

Opening 300 packs, our chance to get 10 or less legendaries is as high as 11%! 

If we go for a very bad luck with only 5 or less legendaries in 300 packs.... It is 0.2%!  One in five hundreds is far from impossible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Bozonik said:

Some people's experiences will naturally be different though, just due to luck, unless they've opened like thousands of packs by which point you're very unlikely to be far from the expected averages.

Yeah, this is probably pretty key. People also seem to forget that in the past they may have had a streak of luck, but not with the cards they wanted. There's no exceptions made for duplicates, bad legendaries etc.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Raxyn said:

I'm unfamiliar with the term "Pitty Timer", what is that?

Basically what this article is talking about, a player is pretty much guaranteed to get certain rarities after a certain amount of packs opened. Blizzard did this to prevent players from buying hundreds of packs an never getting a legendary.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, KingMe said:

Basically what this article is talking about, a player is pretty much guaranteed to get certain rarities after a certain amount of packs opened. Blizzard did this to prevent players from buying hundreds of packs an never getting a legendary.  

 

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Raxyn said:

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks :)

Sure thing, glad I could help. :) 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8.5.2017 at 5:04 AM, Strongpoint said:

Well, several hundreds is not a large enough sample size to expect result close to 1 in 20. To simplify lets ignore possibility of getting more than one per pack and assume that there are no pity timer and we have a flat 5% chance to get a legendary. 

Opening 300 packs, our chance to get 10 or less legendaries is as high as 11%! 

If we go for a very bad luck with only 5 or less legendaries in 300 packs.... It is 0.2%!  One in five hundreds is far from impossible.

I never claimed that 300 or 400 packs is a big enough sample.

I just answered the question from the topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess this number would make sense...when I got the pre-order for Un Goro, I didn't get a single legendary. I had to buy another 40 cards before I got two quests at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

I never claimed that 300 or 400 packs is a big enough sample.

I just answered the question from the topic.

You're good and from what you've said in your previous comments we have the same stats and luck with our packs and I've opened well over a thousand packs since I started playing.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Similar Content

    • By Damien
      This thread is for comments about our Pirate Warrior Deck List Guide.
    • By Damien
      This thread is for comments about our Silver Hand Paladin Deck List Guide.
    • By Damien
      This thread is for comments about our Dungeon Run guide for Kobolds and Catacombs.
    • By Zadina

      Our K&C guides should be coming along real soon!
      Blizzard surprised Europeans pleasantly by releasing the new expansion on Thursday, a few hours after the Americas release.
      Hearthstone latest expansion is now live in the Americas and in Europe. The patch, that added Kobolds & Catacombs to the live client, was released on Wednesday. The important part is that new cardbacks have been added, arena draft appearance rates have been adjusted and there are going to be daily login quests during the upcoming World Championship. Click below to view the patch notes:
      Blizzard Entertainment
      + Show- Hide   Don’t miss out! The Kobolds & Catacombs pre-purchase bundle will remain available until 11:59 p.m. PST December 6. This bundle includes 50 card packs at a special price and the For the Hoard! card back. Hearthstone’s newest Expansion, Kobolds & Catacombs, releases beginning December 7! Log in after release to receive 3 Kobolds & Catacombs card packs and a random Legendary weapon card, FREE! Kobolds & Catacombs introduces: Dungeon Run: FREE repeatable single-player experience where everything you need is provided! Legendary weapon collectible cards for ALL nine classes A new keyword: Recruit Two new card types: Spellstones and Unidentified Items In total, 135 new cards to add to your collection! Added three progressive Dungeon Run quests that each reward a Kobolds & Catacombs card pack*. Defeat Dungeon Run with all nine classes to acquire the Candle King card back! New daily quest – Spelunker: Defeat 5 Dungeon Run encounters. Reward: 1 Classic card pack. The Hearth and Home cinematic has replaced the previous Hearthstone cinematic.
      Added the following card backs: Azeroth is Burning – Acquired from a special promotion.
      Catacomber – Acquired from achieving Rank 20 in Ranked Play, December 2017
      Frostfire – Acquired from achieving Rank 20 in Ranked Play, January 2018
      Improved reconnection and UI for Friendly Challenges. A new Match Paused pop-up will display a countdown while waiting for opponent to reconnect. When a player reconnects, the turn timer will restart. The Game Menu will now display ‘End Game’ instead of ‘Concede’ and clicking it will tie the match. Arena
      Arena draft appearance rates have been adjusted. Note: Non-Basic Neutral Classic minions represent the baseline for draft appearance rates. Basic/classic neutral minion: .5x Non-basic/classic neutral minion: 1x Most recent set neutral minion: 2x Basic class minion: 2x Basic class spell: 3.5x Non-basic/classic class minion: 2x Non-basic/classic class spell/weapon: 3.5x Most recent set class minion: 4x Most recent set class spell/weapon: 7x As part of our ongoing efforts to improve Class balance in the Arena, we are making small, periodic appearance rate adjustments to specific Arena cards.   Bug Fixes Fixed a crash that could occur when attempting to spectate without closing the Arena welcome message. Canceling Malfurion the Pestilent will no longer cause Armor to become invisible. Attacks with Lifesteal will no longer create excessive animations while Auchenai Soulpriest and Bolf Ramshield are on the board. Multi-target effects with Lifesteal now apply their healing as a single large heal, rather than individually. All Lifesteal effects now use the same, standardized, visual and sound effects. Combo effects can no longer target non-interactable minions such as Sherazin, Seed. Brann Bronzebeard will no longer grant double Lifesteal to Corpsetaker. Blingtron’s Battlecry will now trigger weapon Deathrattles when it occurs twice due to Brann Bronzebeard. Minions destroyed by Frostmourne will now be displayed on its enchantment banner. Losing durability from Sword of Justice will no longer sometimes cause Lifesteal to trigger. Deathstalker Rexxar’s Battlecry no longer benefits from effects on an equipped weapon, such as Poisonous or Lifesteal. Unwilling Sacrifice’s random targeting will no longer select an enemy Spellbender that has intercepted an Unwilling Sacrifice. Granting a Deathrattle to Scavenging Hyena, then playing Terrorscale Stalker on it will no longer give it +2/+1. Resolved a crash that could occur when playing a Quest spell that triggers Counterspell. Cards transformed by Golden Kobold will no longer sometimes be revealed to your opponent. The animation for Frost Nova will no longer play multiples times while Moorabi is on the board. Hovering over a Quest in progress as your turn starts will no longer cause cards that provide progress toward completing it to lose class specific border colors. Replacing a Cursed Blade with a Cursed Blade will no longer remove the ‘cursed’ animation on the Hero portrait. Application of the Bolster buff will no longer be slightly delayed on an eligible minion that was played last onto a full board. Joust and other card reveal effects will now function correctly if your deck contains 60 cards. Tavern Brawl
      Shiftcon: Minions with a Yellow glow will no longer retain it when they shift into a new minion. Tag Team: Resolved an issue that could cause the match to end prematurely when swapping Heroes. Decks Assemble: Resolved a crash that could occur when the turn ends while your opponent controls Jeeves. Mobile
      [Mobile] Fixed a bug where card tooltips would sometime appear at the edge of the screen and get cut off on mobile devices [Android] Region selection on Android tablets will no longer sometimes be blank. (source)
      Kobolds & Catacombs also has a launch trailer. And... it's... glorious!
      Our Kobolds & Catacombs hub contains all 135 revealed cards and everything you need to know about the novelties of this expansion, such as the Dungeon Runs or the new Class Legendary Weapons. At the moment, our guide writers should be hard at work preparing new deck guides. We might even have guides for the Dungeon Runs. Lastly, our Arena tier lists are up-to-date.
      At any case, you can track any updates in our Hearthstone changelog, but we'll probably make a news post about them. For now, you can read Aleco's excellent set review for Kobolds & Catacombs.
      Good luck with your pack openings and feel free to share any amazingly good or bad openings you've had! Also, best of luck to those who'll brave the ladder or to those of you who choose to delve into the Dungeon Runs!
    • By Vlad
      This thread is for comments about our Spell Hunter Deck List.