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Official Card Rarity Drop Probabilities from Packs

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In compliance with China's new law that went into effect on May 1st, Blizzard have revealed the probabilities of getting specific rarities of cards from each pack opening. There was an official post on the Chinese Hearthstone site, and intrepid redditors translated it quickly, so here's the full text:

Quote

In adherence to new laws, Hearthstone is hereby declaring the probabilities of getting specific card rarities from packs, with details as below.

Note: Each Hearthstone pack contains cards of 4 different rarities.

  • RARE - At least 1 rare or better in each pack

  • EPIC - Average of 1 every 5 packs

  • LEGENDARY - Average of 1 every 20 packs

In addition, please note that as players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards of a higher quality increases in tandem.

That last line is probably referring to the often mentioned "pity timer", which was even acknowledged by the devs themselves. Whether the odds mentioned above actually include the pity timer or not is up for debate, but it seems likely that they do. And, of course, we can't be sure if the odds are the same in the Chinese version of the game as in the US/EU one, but it seems likely.

So there you go, pretty much as expected, even though they did not reveal the gold card odds. Do these line up with your own experiences or are you much more/less lucky?

Source: r/hearthstone.

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Epics: No idea.

Legendary: In the last 3 month: Yeah, the last 60 packs were around 3 legendaries.

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

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9 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

more 1 in 35.

This is about what I have averaged mine out to, sometimes a tad sooner but that's about where it is at. Golden seems to be about every 90 packs or so but I haven't paid as much attention to that statistic as much as it's non-golden counterpart. Now that I think about it though pulling legendaries from packs is about on par with Shiny fishing on Pokemon, after 30 it's anytime now. lol 

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12 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

This is probably influenced by the absence of Pity Timer before TGT. The average should be lower in the last year.

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Is this specifically stating the chances at this point in time? Could it have been different 1 month ago?

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6 hours ago, Blainie said:

Is this specifically stating the chances at this point in time? Could it have been different 1 month ago?

I'd assume it's this point in time, and onwards (unless they announce a change).

That said though, these numbers are pretty much just a confirmation of what players' data has already shown. For instance http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics. There doesn't appear to be any significant change in the proportions pre-TGT, except for golden cards.

Most of the data sets show a slightly higher incidence of legendaries than 1 in 20 packs, which suggests to me the pity timer effects isn't included in the numbers posted by Blizzard (if there's a 1 in 20 chance per pack, sometimes you'll go longer than 40 packs before getting one, so the pity timer increases the amount you get in the long run slightly).

Some people's experiences will naturally be different though, just due to luck, unless they've opened like thousands of packs by which point you're very unlikely to be far from the expected averages.

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On 05.05.2017 at 9:57 PM, WedgeAntilles said:

The last 3 years: Not nearly 1 in 20. At most 1 in 30, more 1 in 35. Opened several hundred packs in these years.

Well, several hundreds is not a large enough sample size to expect result close to 1 in 20. To simplify lets ignore possibility of getting more than one per pack and assume that there are no pity timer and we have a flat 5% chance to get a legendary. 

Opening 300 packs, our chance to get 10 or less legendaries is as high as 11%! 

If we go for a very bad luck with only 5 or less legendaries in 300 packs.... It is 0.2%!  One in five hundreds is far from impossible.

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8 hours ago, Bozonik said:

Some people's experiences will naturally be different though, just due to luck, unless they've opened like thousands of packs by which point you're very unlikely to be far from the expected averages.

Yeah, this is probably pretty key. People also seem to forget that in the past they may have had a streak of luck, but not with the cards they wanted. There's no exceptions made for duplicates, bad legendaries etc.

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46 minutes ago, Raxyn said:

I'm unfamiliar with the term "Pitty Timer", what is that?

Basically what this article is talking about, a player is pretty much guaranteed to get certain rarities after a certain amount of packs opened. Blizzard did this to prevent players from buying hundreds of packs an never getting a legendary.  

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6 hours ago, KingMe said:

Basically what this article is talking about, a player is pretty much guaranteed to get certain rarities after a certain amount of packs opened. Blizzard did this to prevent players from buying hundreds of packs an never getting a legendary.  

 

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks :)

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On 8.5.2017 at 5:04 AM, Strongpoint said:

Well, several hundreds is not a large enough sample size to expect result close to 1 in 20. To simplify lets ignore possibility of getting more than one per pack and assume that there are no pity timer and we have a flat 5% chance to get a legendary. 

Opening 300 packs, our chance to get 10 or less legendaries is as high as 11%! 

If we go for a very bad luck with only 5 or less legendaries in 300 packs.... It is 0.2%!  One in five hundreds is far from impossible.

I never claimed that 300 or 400 packs is a big enough sample.

I just answered the question from the topic.

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I guess this number would make sense...when I got the pre-order for Un Goro, I didn't get a single legendary. I had to buy another 40 cards before I got two quests at all.

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12 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

I never claimed that 300 or 400 packs is a big enough sample.

I just answered the question from the topic.

You're good and from what you've said in your previous comments we have the same stats and luck with our packs and I've opened well over a thousand packs since I started playing.  

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