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Heroic Tavern Brawl Announced: Value Analysis for Most Skill Levels

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Blizzard have announced that this week's Tavern Brawl is going to be a competitive Brawl with an entry fee and an Arena style payout structure.

The announcement, which is posted on battle.net, explains that the Brawl will involve making a constructed Standard deck, and then locking in that deck for the duration of the Brawl. In a move away from usual Brawls, this one is highly competitive, with a 1000 gold, or $9.99 entry fee. The Brawl ends when you have lost three matches, or won twelve. This is the same system that is used in Arena. The payout structure is shown below.

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I have included a table below, which shows the expected returns. There are a few notes to understand about the methodology. Firstly, Gold is counted as 100 for a pack. Golden Legendaries count as 3200.

Secondly, the model breaks down a little around the extremes, It becomes unstable in the high 60s and low 30s because it doesn't factor in that your 10-0 opponent is also on a very good score. This means it overstates the number of 12s slightly for good players, and 0s for weak players. You can see for yourselves where this starts to occur in the chart.

Thirdly, the average for a 50% player is 2.99, not 3.00. This is correct because if you were going to go 33-2, you never get to finish that run when you are cut off at 12-2. Look up your anticipated win percentage, and read across to the pretty colours to find out your EV.

EHL4UPH.png

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They are saying you can only participate in it for a limited amount of completed runs but they aren't being very specific. I'm assuming one can participate in more than one but for how many more past that I wonder. Also I'm predicting an overflow of Shaman decks in this weeks Brawl

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Considering that I don't have 1000 gold and would have a much better use than an constructed Arena run for those if I did, I'll pass. No extra pack this week, I guess...

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Just now, Keizoku said:

Considering that I don't have 1000 gold and would have a much better use than an constructed Arena run for those if I did, I'll pass. No extra pack this week, I guess...

This Brawl is bad for F2P players, which I am not the happiest about. I myself will pay the $10 to play it once but I understand that a lot of players either can't do that or choose not to (which I respect their decision). I like the idea of this brawl but like I said, I'm not happy about the cost of entry to play. 

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As a unique live test run for an eventual new game mode, I'd have nothing against it. But the rewards for a successful run are just so insanely overboard that it will never go live as such. I might be too cynical, but this just looks like a quick money grab to me.

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9 minutes ago, Keizoku said:

I might be too cynical, but this just looks like a quick money grab to me.

This was exactly my first thought when I looked at the rewards then looked at the entry fee. The real entry fee to this brawl is $10 because we know and they (Blizzard) knows very few players have 1000 gold lying around. But Blizzard is notorious for quick money grabs. 

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Hmmmm, Idea and concept are fine. But this is the re-run of the season. Constructed arena = Constructed Ranked where everyone starts at zero. Entry fee comparing to the rewards would be fine if there were Rare and Epic cards also in the rewards.

But puting all this aside it looks like Blizzard needs a gold sink. By the way as I understand those are standart packs.

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20 minutes ago, Dantalian said:

By the way as I understand those are standart packs.

It shows 50 "Whispers of the Old Gods"  in Blizzard's News article.

 

23 minutes ago, Dantalian said:

Entry fee comparing to the rewards would be fine if there were Rare and Epic cards also in the rewards.

I agree that there should be more Golden card rewards at lower "ranks" given how high the entry fee is. 

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Honestly, this feels like a pretty ugly cash grab and/or gold sink on Blizzard's part. For what? To play the same decks you face in ranked. Gonna be a lot of salt over this one.

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Worst Brawl ever because simple is not a Brawl, Arena with a 7x entry fee.

I've the quest Win 5 brawls how I'm supposed to do a quest if i've to pay 10 euro to do it?

If entry fee was at 150 gold or around that would be somewhat acceptable... but 1000 is more than an adventure wing is purely nonsense.

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I'll be surprised if anyone is able to go 12-2 in order to get the top reward. The only way you're able to do this in Arena is because skill matters in the selection. In standard everyone can go grab a deck from Sottle's lists, read for 5 minutes, and at least be competitive to steal a game or two from the top players. Going on two 6 game win streaks in normal games is really intense. The break even point is also around 5-6 games (depending on how you value dust) Which is REALLY high.

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3 hours ago, Laragon said:

I'll be surprised if anyone is able to go 12-2 in order to get the top reward. The only way you're able to do this in Arena is because skill matters in the selection. In standard everyone can go grab a deck from Sottle's lists, read for 5 minutes, and at least be competitive to steal a game or two from the top players. Going on two 6 game win streaks in normal games is really intense. The break even point is also around 5-6 games (depending on how you value dust) Which is REALLY high.

There are going to be very few pros hitting the 12 win runs and getting rewards that they honestly don't need. There are pros like Kibbler who have solid gold legend decks and 10's of thousands of gold and dust, so these rewards are and will be a bit wasted on players like him. But sadly with this brawl, the rich get richer. 5 or 6 wins have a pretty good money value seeing how much packs cost, but no one wants nor should have to spend $10 per entry. I could possible see this whole thing treated as an event and the entry fee being for the entire event. Once you pay you get to play as many runs as you want. Still more than it should be but in my opinion more reasonable than what they are offering now. 

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I feel that I like the idea but not the actual thing. 

EV is bad. Payout is really skewed towards 12 wins. Your chances to make it here with 70 whooping percent winrate are quite low. Also, if you have a consistent 70% Constructed winrate, you probably make enough gold in Arena and your top 100 legend finishes give you so much Twitch followers that you don't care about prizes.

Current Standard meta is weird. It's tuned in a way that there are decks that reward skill, but there are also decks that don't care about any of players doing the right thing at all and they can clutch wins just based on good draws. Or fold to themselves. It balances itself with a big sample, but not in a 15 single deck brackets. 

And the whole single deck idea is as anticlimactic as it could be. There is a reason we have Conquest and LHS as featured tournament formats. It's just more depth and ultimately more skill involved.

Personally, I'm not competing in Heroic Brawl. I'm way too far from my optimal shape(it's a big thing in digital athletics, heh). High-profile players will find this event exciting and they don't mind the investment, and I'm glad for them. It's a good sign that Blizzard are making some content not for their average casual crowd, that path has been filled with ups and downs for more than 20 years. They should have given us an option to play Randomonium instead, though.

And one more thing : in Magic: The Gathering, a 12-3-1 record locks you in a top 8 of the highest profile events - Grand Prix level and Pro Tour. 12-4 can pass depending on tiebreakers. Top 8 is considered a real achievement, you'll pretty much be in the books for the rest of Magic's history, not to mention the paycheck. It's also fairly common to split prizes, because actually playing out the Top 8 matches can go south for both sides. Now think about this and 3 golden Legendaries + 50 packs.

Edited by Paracel
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5 hours ago, Laragon said:

I'll be surprised if anyone is able to go 12-2 in order to get the top reward. The only way you're able to do this in Arena is because skill matters in the selection. In standard everyone can go grab a deck from Sottle's lists, read for 5 minutes, and at least be competitive to steal a game or two from the top players. Going on two 6 game win streaks in normal games is really intense. The break even point is also around 5-6 games (depending on how you value dust) Which is REALLY high.

I'm not sure that's true. The top players in constructed have pretty high win-rates. I'm pretty new (started playing in July) and went 61-41 in the climb from Rank 4 to Legend last season. The players who are getting there way before the end of the season must have significantly higher win rates than that. Also in high rank constructed you're facing people with viable decks who know how to play them, that is unlikely to be the case in the first few games of this.

Also, knowing how to play a deck is much more important than knowing how to draft. You can grab a deck from Sottle's lists and be utterly useless with it (e.g. I tried the new Freeze Aggro mage that's been going around recently and won about 25% of my games, Trump has a few vids on YouTube where he played it to Legend with a near 80% win rate). Merps and Adwcta's latest Lightforge has quite a bit of discussion about the importance of draft and playing-skill, they rate the latter as way more impactful than the former.

I do feel this brawl is rather tough on new/weaker players though. Even a 0-3 run in arena returns an average of 122 dust/gold (from my sample of 6 anyway) which is an 81% return. A 0-3 in this gives a 10% return which is going to leave a lot of people feeling pretty disappointed.

Edited by Bozonik

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I will try the brawl for fun. 1k gold won't affect me that much, I already have all the adventures and am able to run arena permanently, so I don't really need gold at this point. I won't even mind getting a 1k gold pack, though I don't think it will be my case. I won't get 12 wins, I probably won't break even, but at least it will be fun (as far as HS can be considered fun). 

So, freeze mage is the best midrange shaman counter? Well, it's time to start getting used to it on ladder :

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With a bit of creativity and some luck, I can see myself being successful here. Let's hope the rules for this brawl are fun yet not too RNG based. If this brawl promotes control, I will do well... if it promotes Aggro, I will fail

 

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1 hour ago, YourGod said:

With a bit of creativity and some luck, I can see myself being successful here. Let's hope the rules for this brawl are fun yet not too RNG based. If this brawl promotes control, I will do well... if it promotes Aggro, I will fail

 

Based on what is released from Blizzard. It is literally that "Participants will create a Standard deck from their existing card pool and lock it in before their first Heroic Brawl match." It's standard with out the ability to adapt to changes in meta at different levels. There is nothing that will promote control, or aggro, or anything unique. It's the game we all play, just adding a high risk - high reward touch from arena. The problem is it costs more than an entire adventure wing, with possibly little reward.

After some thought. I think they messed up by making the risk-reward too high for what we are already playing. They should have lowered it to around or less than 500 gold and lower rewards to match. Yeah, three gold legendaries is an exciting prospect, but there will be a LOT of people that won't play this. Brawl has always been about goofiness and giving a free pack so people can try and catch up without a huge investment. It's odd to see such a stark change for (hopefully) just one week.

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Not sure if they delayed it, or made a mistake in the launch, but I just played this week's brawl and it's ShiftCon, with a deck full of Shifter Zerus.

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1 hour ago, Neuric said:

Not sure if they delayed it, or made a mistake in the launch, but I just played this week's brawl and it's ShiftCon, with a deck full of Shifter Zerus.

Good catch! just signed on to do mine just in case they pull it later like they do a couple times before. I got my free pack.

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Placeholder for tweet 788437522015588353

They tweeted that the heroic brawl won't be coming this week. It is possible it will be super delayed though, so it drops as close to the start of the next expansion as possible.

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On 10/20/2016 at 6:45 AM, positiv2 said:
They tweeted that the heroic brawl won't be coming this week. It is possible it will be super delayed though, so it drops as close to the start of the next expansion as possible.

"Soon"

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      Blizzard Undervalues The Human Element

      I imagine the reason why Corridor Creeper was nerfed immediately yet Patches the Pirate was allowed to stay in his current form for as long as he was has something to do with Blizzard's internal stat tracking. I have little doubt that Corridor Creeper will raise more statistical red flags than Patches due to the fact that it's rarely (if ever) a bad card to draw in aggro decks, whereas Patches is arguably the worst card to draw in the entire game. When you average out the games that Patches both single-handedly wins and loses, he likely tests as a "worse" card than Corridor Creeper does statisically, which could be used as justification for why he was left untouched for as long as he was.
      Though the actual stats surrounding a cards win rates should be a major factor when it comes to balance updates, I believe that Blizzard should put a little more weight on the "human element" of cards. Whereas Creeper may be the stronger card, it doesn't feel nearly as bad as Patches does. Regardless of whether or not the stats said that the card needed a nerf, Hearthstone would have almost certainly been a better game if Patches was nerfed at the same time as Small-Time Buccaneer. The same can probably be said for Ultimate Infestation when it comes to the previous balance patch. Though Blizzard's internal stats told them that Spreading Plague was more responsible for Jade Druid's dominance in the early KFT meta, it doesn't feel nearly as bad to lose to as Ultimate Infestation does. And that's important.
      At the end of the day, I believe that stats shouldn't be the only thing which dictates whether or not a card deserves to be nerfed. Cards like Patches and Ultimate Infestation have caused far more headaches and groans than smiles and cheers, regardless of what the statistics say. Hearthstone is a video game, video games are supposed to fun, and cards that have drawn hate for as long as Patches and Ultimate Infestation have seriously get in the way of that.
      On the whole, I'm quite happy with the nerfs that will be coming in the next balance patch and am excited for the future of Hearthstone. Despite the concerns surrounding Warlock, I'm happy to see that Blizzard isn't the business of preemptively handling problems which may or may ever exist. I'd much rather endure a few months of Warlock dominance (especially after how bad the class was in Journey to Un'Goro) than live in a world where every "best deck in the meta" has a constant target on its back for Blizzard's nerf gun.