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Starym

Will the Shadowlands Pre-patch Release on October 6th / 7th?

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Update: Blizzard have released the official preview for everything that's coming in the pre-patch and said the end of Battle for Azeroth Season 4 is coming "soon". You can check out the full post here.

The WoW community spent the second half of this week in anticipation of Blizzard's pre-patch release date announcement, only to come away disappointed. There has been plenty of speculation on the date, going from September 15th all the way to the current most likely date of October 6th (for the US). Also, a brand new clue/tinfoil hat conspiracy has come up recently as well, as some mobs are channeling once again!

The Season End Warning

First things first though, the real reason why October 6th/7th is the most likely pre-patch release date at this time is the warning Blizzard give out for the end of a season. Usually it's around 2 weeks, but it's been known to be less, and many players are hoping they'll just make it 1 week this time. However, with this being the end of not just Season 4 but also Battle for Azeroth in general, with many players still chasing AotC and CE achievements, arena rankings and everything else that's going away in the pre-patch, it seems unlikely that the now very standard 10-14 days warning goes down to 7 or 8 (as Monday would be the earliest they could announce at this point).

The Channeling Mobs

There have been several new reports of some very persistent casters channeling once more, as both the old controversial Xorothian Cultists and some new friends of theirs are at it again. Now this particular "channeling time is pointing to the patch/pre-patch/other important dates" theory has been debunked in the past, and several different mobs have been seen channeling pointing to random dates, so take this one with a giant grain of salt, but the new and old mobs are indeed channeling again and are pointing to October 6th and 7th (depending on is it's on US or EU servers).

You can read about the Xorothian Cultists here, the new Shirakess Apprentice fellows here, and you can (and probably should) read the debunking thread from a few years ago here.

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Source.

The Reputation Buff

As we've talked about before, the reputation buff is active through all of September and it seems a little strange/unlikely that it would remain active for only 2 days (or even 1 for EU) of the pre-patch arriving. Obviously this isn't that big a deal but it does point to the 6th and 7th being more likely as well, and at least we know the dates of the rep buff as a fact, unlike the above two reasons.

Conclusion

It's seeming very likely that we won't be getting the pre-patch on September 29th/30th, making Shadowlands' one of the shorter pre-expansion events, coming in at 3 weeks. Whether this has something to do with the controversial nature of the Scourge invasion event, which has been moved around the insane/difficult/slightly annoying/irrelevant scale an awful lot on the PTR, so perhaps Blizzard don't want it up for too long, or perhaps there's some technical issues or even just the need for more polish for the pre-patch itself, we might never know. What we do know is that the community is VERY eager to get into the pre-patch, with its fast leveling speeds, level squish, new player experience, invasion event and so much more.

We can all still hope for the 29th/30th, but it's looking more and more likely October 6th/7th is the one.

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At this point I'd rather Blizzard announce they weren't going to do a prepatch at all just so we can have some closure. It's been incredibly frustrating this last month just constantly thinking and moving the prepatch date back and back and back with literally not a single word from Blizzard one way or the other. I just wish they would tell us literally *anything* even if it's the worst possible news it's better than no news what so ever.

Also, I'd just point out that BFA had some really really crazy PvP season announcements.
 

  • BFA: Season One began 8.0, but it wasn't ended until a month after the release of 8.1 (Blue Post Source)
  • BFA: Season Two began at the same time the raids opened in 8.1, ended with 8.2 announced 6 days before (Blue post Source)
  • BFA: Season Three began 8.2, ended with 8.3 announced 7 days before (Blue Post Source) Now this season was a bit weird while the actual end date was announced 7 days before the patch was announced nearly a full calendar month before (Source) but the end date and the start date of the PvP season were not given until just 7 days before. 8.3 was a weird announcement in the history of announcements but if it was repeated then the patch would launch October 20 and be announced next wednesday, not giving players enough time to even experience the two weeks of prepatch events and not giving them the three weeks needed to get the gear from that event. It's weird. Weird weird weird.
  • BFA: Season Four began with 8.3 and has not ended, nor has it's end been announced. If it's anything like the announcements for the rest of BFA it will come as a blue post that announces both the launch date for 9.0.1 and the end of the PvP season at the same time. It will likely be about a week before, though it could be a shorter time or... it could just end with 9.0.2 on October 27th. We don't really know. 
The one thing I've seen looking back over all of the expansions is that inconsistency is the norm, not 2 weeks. I mean we've gotten over a months warning multiple times and sometimes been told just a few days before it ends. I don't think it's a good predictor, the best it does is show how unpredictable this really is.

Edit: format
Edited by BeeDad
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1 hour ago, Starym said:

It's seeming very likely that we won't be getting the pre-patch on October 29th/30th, making Shadowlands' one of the shorter pre-expansion events, coming in at 3 weeks.

We can all still hope for the 29th/30th, but it's looking more and more likely October 6th/7th is the one.

Typo! I believe you intended that first sentence to be September 29/30 as October 29/30 will be after launch.

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7 minutes ago, Borgoff33 said:

if its not coming the 22nd/29th of September why did they already put the pre-patch/xpac on the background download?

I read about that, but i have yet to see it do any background downloading, unless my connection is that good. lol

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1 minute ago, Lithari said:

I read about that, but i have yet to see it do any background downloading, unless my connection is that good. lol

i downloaded it like a day or two ago on the background downloader it was like 20-21gigs

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15 minutes ago, Borgoff33 said:

i downloaded it like a day or two ago on the background downloader it was like 20-21gigs

I probably downloaded it while playing wow, 20-21GB takes like 15-20mins to download.

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3 hours ago, DracoInferno said:

Typo! I believe you intended that first sentence to be September 29/30 as October 29/30 will be after launch.

You are absolutely correct, although when you look at the sentence, it's still correct even with the mistake, it is definitely NOT coming on Oct 30 :D:D

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3 hours ago, Borgoff33 said:

if its not coming the 22nd/29th of September why did they already put the pre-patch/xpac on the background download?

Why wouldn't they? If there's that much to be downloaded better to have it up earlier. They also made changes to the PTR AFTER it was put on the downloader so obviously it's not the final version.

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10 hours ago, Lithari said:

I read about that, but i have yet to see it do any background downloading, unless my connection is that good. lol

if u have the ptr installed it shares data with live and the backround download will only be 400 mbs

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42 minutes ago, elmurufdd said:

if u have the ptr installed it shares data with live and the backround download will only be 400 mbs

I know my download speed is like 900Mbits, i should notice 25GB download, but if it does share the info, then i wouldn't notice 400MB, that would be done in like 10 seconds.

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On 9/20/2020 at 8:40 PM, BareMoon said:

I'm still going with a Sept 29th pre-patch release date...

Yeah, i honestly ain't really bothering playing until this patch goes live.

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