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Hearthstone Hot Topic: Pity Timer on Pack Openings

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If you think you have been cursed by the RNG gods or if you are Forsen (aka you are never lucky), fear no more. According to a recent data analysis, pack openings are rigged - in a good way!

 

We already knew that pack openings weren't completely random. Four months ago, Pity Timer on Packs Opening, and the Best Strategy, Pity Timer on Packs Openings analysis[Kinda proofed], Continuing Information on the Pity Timer.

YouTube: Kripparrian on The Pity Timer & Card Management.

Icy-Veins forums: Pity Counter on Packs for Legendary Drops

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I think in one of these Reddit threads they were discussing that it might be better not to buy a lot of packs together. One could argue that 15 aren't a lot, though...

 

You might be onto something (or you might just be lucky tongue.png ): in the last Reddit thread I linked, the author has encouraged users to open more packs so he can gather further data. Perhaps you could make a contribution to the investigation.

 

I know for a fact that I am not :'(

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I think in one of these Reddit threads they were discussing that it might be better not to buy a lot of packs together. One could argue that 15 aren't a lot, though...

 

You might be onto something (or you might just be lucky tongue.png ): in the last Reddit thread I linked, the author has encouraged users to open more packs so he can gather further data. Perhaps you could make a contribution to the investigation.

 

I know for a fact that I am not :'(

 

Made a topic in general for exactly this but maybe it goes better in news.

 

The strategy for buying single packs really only applies for short term buying specifically for people looking to farm legendaries in across all expansion packs, so that you can stop buying a particular expansion packs right after getting a legendary and move on to the next one, since your legendary rate on that type of packs will reset to its lowest value. 

 

For example

In my case i hadn't kept track of how many packs I have bought since last legendary in each expansion, so I had to take em one by one and switch to a different expansion pack as soon as I get a legendary on that pack.

 

Last night I started with Classic and got a Greenskin on the second pack I bought. Now I'll shift to GvG and keep opening and buying packs until I get one from there, and move on the TGT. Once all are reset, I can either commit to classic (since I am missing a lot of the useful legendaries from that) in which case I 'could' buy in bulk, or I can choose to vary my options between classic and GvG to get Dr.Boom as well. In the second senario it's faster to Buy and open a pack at a time so I can alternate between the two with the utmost gold efficiency.

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Yeah, science, baby!

This is some seriously interesting information. For me it means: As my last TGT pack contained Nexus-Prince Saraad I will concentrate on other packs. And since I only ever opened one GVG Legendary, this will be the expansion to buy packs from!

Classic packs will be coming either way due to Tavern Brawl.

But some questions remain: Why did the 50-60 TGT packs I bought contain 4 Legendaries and not only 1-2?

And will it take another 10 months for me to open a second golden Legendary?

After all, I guess I will not change my buying strategy: I just buy from the one expansion that I lack the most Rares of and otherwise hope for the best. In the long run I don't think these mathematics will change much for regular players.

 

Cheerio,

Bob

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But some questions remain: Why did the 50-60 TGT packs I bought contain 4 Legendaries and not only 1-2?

And will it take another 10 months for me to open a second golden Legendary?

After all, I guess I will not change my buying strategy: I just buy from the one expansion that I lack the most Rares of and otherwise hope for the best. In the long run I don't think these mathematics will change much for regular players.

 

Cheerio,

Bob

 

For the first question, it's because you got lucky! The timer doesn't limit your chances to get more than one legendary within 39 packs; it just ensures that you get one. When it resets, the likelihood of getting a legendary soon becomes smaller but it still exists. Therefore, you should be happy with your result biggrin.png

 

Yes and no, I guess. Depends on how often you buy packs. It's a very low chance, for sure. The Reddit brainiacs haven't yet determined the actual magical number for Golden Legendaries (it's between 305-310), so we don't know for now at each point the probability to get one increases.

 

Lastly, for me my strategy is to get mostly legendaries that I am still missing. I still think that gathering rares and dusting them is the most efficient way. Okay, now I can know more or less when I'll get a legendary but I still cannot control which one I get. The other day I got a regular Ragnaros and I already have it. :/

 

@Valkyr: I've edited the OP to contain your topic.

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