Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
L0rinda

hearthstone Heroic Tavern Brawl is Back: Expected Value Chart

14 posts in this topic

McgjGkE.png

The Heroic Tavern Brawl makes its second appearance today. Last time around, it was a very popular Brawl, and there is no reason to believe this time will be any different.

In Heroic Brawl, you play a normal Standard constructed deck of your choice from your collection, and play until you either win twelve, or lose three, matches. This means it plays in similar fashion to Arena. Heroic Brawl is called Heroic for a reason though, it costs 1000 gold. 

The payout table is shown below:

4wKot4X.png

I have also created a table showing your expected payout. The full information as to the methodology can be found in the original post, but basically the table is accurate enough to be a good guide, other than around the extremes. (The corners of the image).

EHL4UPH.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish there was better information on participation rate from the first time this came through. I know it was a streamer's dream, but I certainly didn't bother with it. This close to an expansion, I especially don't want to sink my gold into an older set.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmmm, same thing. They need to dry out our gold stash. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pay 1,000 gold to get smacked by another pirate warrior.

This brawl would be cool if it followed arena format. Basically, the same arena but with higher risks and rewards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They did it again , they use this horrible fake brawl to soak all players gold before expansion so you pay with money when it comes out since you have no gold. As I said before this brawl makes no sense to exist why pay 1000 gold or worse real money to play a boring stardand game that you can play normally, it's either pirate warrior or jade druid you'll find why pay 1000 gold to see them again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This should stop being a brawl! I just got the 5 brawl wins quest, worst week ever... Guess that will sit in my quest queue for a week.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They should give us more warning so that we have time to save up the gold; one week is not enough time. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn't even entertaining to watch. The first one I watched quite a lot of streams and enjoyed it but now it is... meh. 

The very same brawl with special deck building rules or simply in the wild format would be actually fun to watch (and this really should be a separate game mode...) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1000 gold to play in a Standard queue is insane. If you don't win at least 3 times, which is entirely probable, then you waste 10 packs' worth of saved gold. The risk is not worth it, especially if your chances of lucking out 3 games in a  row and losing right away are decently possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never understood the hate this brawl gets.  This brawl is obviously meant for experienced players, an it even warns people of this.  Is there anything wrong with having 3 weeks out of the year or whatever dedicated to a brawl for the people who dedicate a large amount of time to this game?  Yes, the rewards are gated, yes it costs a ton of gold, and yes I guess it sucks a little bit to not get to play a brawl for a week, but it is largely meant to both encourage only experienced and established players (ones who have the gold to throw around) to take try hard decks into the brawl to increase competition.  I guess my thing is, a lot of people grind to legend every month and they really don't get a whole lot out of it, Blizzard has a brawl directly targeted at these players and makes some money at it in the process, and the community just spews hate and vitriol at it like these are inherently bad things.  It would be ideal for them to just have it as an additional brawl once every few months, or what have you, but there might be some programming concerns with implementing this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

I have never understood the hate this brawl gets.  This brawl is obviously meant for experienced players, an it even warns people of this.  Is there anything wrong with having 3 weeks out of the year or whatever dedicated to a brawl for the people who dedicate a large amount of time to this game?  Yes, the rewards are gated, yes it costs a ton of gold, and yes I guess it sucks a little bit to not get to play a brawl for a week, but it is largely meant to both encourage only experienced and established players (ones who have the gold to throw around) to take try hard decks into the brawl to increase competition.  I guess my thing is, a lot of people grind to legend every month and they really don't get a whole lot out of it, Blizzard has a brawl directly targeted at these players and makes some money at it in the process, and the community just spews hate and vitriol at it like these are inherently bad things.  It would be ideal for them to just have it as an additional brawl once every few months, or what have you, but there might be some programming concerns with implementing this.

Yeah, I don't get it either.

Players say that ' Heroic Brawl is started soon before a new expansion is released. This is because they want our gold.' This is as bad as an argument as 'there is a conspiracy against me' and it is pointless. Even though the time of this brawl could make you think like this, and maybe you're totally right about it, there is one point players are missing I think:

Nobody forces you to do anything.

The fact that it takes place of the normal brawl for a week may be annoying, but it is a rare occasion. Everyone should calm down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, nobody is forced into it.

And if they would make this brawl let's say a few weeks AFTER a new expansion came out, not many would complain.

But this way, just before a new expansion starts?

LOL

This arena is meant for the experienced players? You mean the players who have with an absolut certainty every card from the current expansion they need? If they truely wanted to make it for these players, they would introduce the heroic brawl after the expansion. Not right before.

No, the one and only aim of Blizzard is to reduce the amount of gold available. Sure, nobody is forced. And it is not possible to predict what a specific player does. But it IS possible to make a prediction about the players in general. Blizzard can be sure that a certain percentage of the players will use the arena. Again, they can't say which player exactly will use it. But they don't need to be able to do this, it is enough that they know gold will be decreased. And again: Not every player who spends gold in this heroic brawl will buy more packs because he has less gold. Sure. But again: The following is certain: The less gold available, the more packs are sold.

This is called "pattern prediction" - you aren't able to say something about the behaviour an individual, but you are able to say something about the behaviour of a large group.

 

And that's why Blizzard gets the heat. Because many realize, that it isn't about giving something to good players (which would be totally ok, great even!). No, it is only to get more packs sold. And it is quite a cheap way to do it, because I think Blizzard hopes that I am dumb, that I won't realize their motives. That's why I feel insulted by Blizzard. Can't say if others feel the same - personally I do.

And that we don't get the "normal" Tavern-Brawl is just the icing on the cake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

And if they would make this brawl let's say a few weeks AFTER a new expansion came out, not many would complain.

Yes.  Yes they would.  The community will complain about anything.

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

This arena is meant for the experienced players? You mean the players who have with an absolut certainty every card from the current expansion they need? If they truely wanted to make it for these players, they would introduce the heroic brawl after the expansion. Not right before.

Or it lets experienced players stockpile gold and dust for the next expansion, ones who will actually get returns out of it.  On top of that, it is somewhat less competitive if it is done right after the next expansion drops since the meta is still wildly in flux.  

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

No, the one and only aim of Blizzard is to reduce the amount of gold available. Sure, nobody is forced. And it is not possible to predict what a specific player does. But it IS possible to make a prediction about the players in general. Blizzard can be sure that a certain percentage of the players will use the arena. Again, they can't say which player exactly will use it. But they don't need to be able to do this, it is enough that they know gold will be decreased. And again: Not every player who spends gold in this heroic brawl will buy more packs because he has less gold. Sure. But again: The following is certain: The less gold available, the more packs are sold.

This is called "pattern prediction" - you aren't able to say something about the behaviour an individual, but you are able to say something about the behaviour of a large group.

So you know exactly what blizzard is thinking?  Sure I imagine that reducing the gold in the economy plays a part in the placement of the brawl, but it probably isn't the only reason.  Casual players generally play less near the end of x pacs because things aren't as new or exciting, and the meta is generally stale and settled.  Also, I somehow doubt that gold is the primary way of paying for this brawl, I am guessing quite a few people who don't have a ton of gold to spend just pay the 10 dollars.

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

And that's why Blizzard gets the heat. Because many realize, that it isn't about giving something to good players (which would be totally ok, great even!). No, it is only to get more packs sold. And it is quite a cheap way to do it, because I think Blizzard hopes that I am dumb, that I won't realize their motives. That's why I feel insulted by Blizzard. Can't say if others feel the same - personally I do.

And that we don't get the "normal" Tavern-Brawl is just the icing on the cake.

This is exactly the hate and vitriol that I am talking about.  You just assume that there is no other reason why blizzard is doing this.  On top of that, even if this WAS the only reason they are doing it, is that really a bad thing?  Hard core players get something made for them, Blizzard increases the real money sales of the next x-pac, win/win.  This argument basically boils down to "LOOK BLIZZARD IS DOING SOMETHING IN THEIR OWN SELF INTEREST!  HOW DARE THEY!  TOO THE FORUMS!".  It honestly just feels childish to me.  

Edited by VaraTreledees

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

Yes.  Yes they would.  The community will complain about anything.

Some do that, yes.

 

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

Or it lets experienced players stockpile gold and dust for the next expansion, ones who will actually get returns out of it.  On top of that, it is somewhat less competitive if it is done right after the next expansion drops since the meta is still wildly in flux. 

Plz note that I wrote "A few weeks"

After 4 - 6 weeks there isn't flux any longer, the meta has established itself.

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

So you know exactly what blizzard is thinking?  Sure I imagine that reducing the gold in the economy plays a part in the placement of the brawl, but it probably isn't the only reason.  Casual players generally play less near the end of x pacs because things aren't as new or exciting, and the meta is generally stale and settled.  Also, I somehow doubt that gold is the primary way of paying for this brawl, I am guessing quite a few people who don't have a ton of gold to spend just pay the 10 dollars.

I do know how economies work, I studied it. They aim to get the 10 bucks too of course, but the timing has the only aim to reduce the gold. Blizzard could launch it all the time. But they do it in exactly that time-slot. Feel free to believe in coincidence. But if you study how our economy works, how companies are run, you will realize that the probability of me being wrong in this case is next to zero.

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

This is exactly the hate and vitriol that I am talking about.  You just assume that there is no other reason why blizzard is doing this.  On top of that, even if this WAS the only reason they are doing it, is that really a bad thing?  Hard core players get something made for them, Blizzard increases the real money sales of the next x-pac, win/win.  This argument basically boils down to "LOOK BLIZZARD IS DOING SOMETHING IN THEIR OWN SELF INTEREST!  HOW DARE THEY!  TOO THE FORUMS!".  It honestly just feels childish to me.  

Like I said - Blizzard hopes and thinks that I am dumb. That I don't get what they are doing. I have no problem if a company does what is in it's own interest. But if the company think it can take me for a fool - well, I don't like it.

And take the increase of the prices: Every little thing is big on the battlenet news. Select a game, look for the news of this game - and you will find tons of stuff. But increase in prices? Nothing. Just hoping nobody notices. Again: Hoping customers are dumb as bread. I don' say that this has to bother you, you can say: "Who cares." or "well, every company tries to cheat you". But I don't like that.

 

But well, Blizzards policy seems to be working just fine.

 

Edited by WedgeAntilles

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Similar Content

    • By Damien
      This thread is for comments about Legendary Quests guide.
    • By Damien
      This thread is for comments about our Adapt Mechanic guide.
    • By L0rinda

      Blizzard have announced that there will be a reward for logging in to Hearthstone each day, to celebrate the build up to the Year of the Mammoth.
      The rewards stop on April 5, and so it seems a fair assumption that the previously rumoured date of April 6 for the release of Journey to Un'Goro, is going to be correct. 

      Source
      As you can see, if you collect every reward, you will end up with 100 gold, 100 Dust, 4 packs, and a Golden Rare. Also, remember that you can collect these on all three regions just by logging in. Even if you don't play the other regions much, it is worth collecting these in case you ever change your mind!
      This also seems a good time to remind people that there will be a dump of all the unspoiled cards by Blizzard on Friday. At which point, we will be ready to start the upcoming Mammoth Hearthstone Year.
    • By L0rinda

      The HCT Winter Championship took place from March 22-26
      The first HCT Global Championship of the year has been completed. ShtanUdachi took home the $60,000 first prize by defeating Fr0zen 4-3 in the Grand Final.
      It was no surprise to many observers that these two players made it to the final. Each of them have been powerhouses on ladder for a long time, and both began to get noticable tournament results in 2016. Some of you might recognise Shtan as ШтанУдачи on the monthly Legend list, where he is regularly listed near the top. 
      Shtan had already beaten Fr0zen in the group stages, and so it was fitting that he was able to win again to take down the Winter Championship. The two losing semi-finalists were Canada's DocPwn, and Taiwan's SamuelTsao. All of the top four players will play in the World Championship, which will be held early in 2018.

      Click image to expand
      Shtan, who is known for being an innovative deck builder, was a little sad that he was unable to bring anything original to the tournament. Of course, that sadness was more than cancelled out by the end result. It is a sign of a strong, and mature, player to be able to play the right decks for the job in hand.
    • By L0rinda

      Today's HCT Championship broadcast began with the reveal of 10 new cards. The first half of this article takes a look at five of those cards and assesses how they might be used in the Year of the Mammoth.
      First of all, we have confirmation that Adapt is costed at 1 Mana. A Pit Fighter with double Adapt is 7 Mana

      This seems like a good time to remind everyone what the Adapt options are. They are: +3 Attack, Divine Shield, Deathrattle: Summon two 1/1 Plants, +1/+1, Poisonous (as in Emperor Cobra), Stealth until next turn, Windfury, Taunt, +3 Health, and Cannot be targeted (as in Faerie Dragon). Volcanosaur is likely too expensive to play a serious part in the meta, but you will often get the abilities that you want from it given that Adapt works with Discover, and so might be worth bearing in mind in heavy ramp decks, or in decks that need a very late win condition.

      It is good to see Blizzard keeping an eye on the current metagame. Gluttonous Ooze is a great card for slowing down aggressive decks that rely on weapons, such as the Current Pirate Warrior. Current ways to deal with Weapons are not particularly satisfactory, so this is a welcome addition to the game.

      Mana Bind is a logical card to have created. It is the Spell version of Mirror Entity, and as such will be a nuisance. It will also make playing around cards generated by random effects more complicated. Currently you will usually play around Spellbender and Counterspell as a pair, and the chances are not that great that they have been generated. With Mana Bind in the mix as well, people will have to be a lot more careful when playing around a random Secret.
      As more secrets get added, there is always more chance that a Secret synergy deck revolving around Kabal Lackey and Medivh's Valet type cards will become relevant. It seems unlikely that this card is powerful enough to swing the balance, but it is an archetype to be looked at.

      One of the major complaints about Hearthstone for the entire time that the game has existed is the lack of comeback mechanisms. Over the last year or so, the introduction of Portals and cards like Inkmaster Solia have shown a desire for this to change. Vilespine Slayer is another card on that list, and it seems like it is a pretty strong one. The card will fit into a variety of decks as it can fill the role of both a control card, and a card at the top of the curve in an aggro deck to clear the way (although Sap would often fill that role). I think this card will see play in Standard, but as usual, we will need to see how the meta evolves to see exactly how it fits in.

      The first thing to note about Living Mana is that it only generates 2/2s until the board is full. The rest of your mana is preserved. This opens the opportunity to play the card on turn 10 and then Savage Roar the turn after if your opponent doesn't deal with the Minions. Against that, if you play it and don't fill the board, you will have no Mana Crystals until either your opponent deals with the Minions, or you trade them off. This is an interesting card that I'm sure people will have fun trying to put into decks.
      The second half of these reveals can be read here.