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Heroic Tavern Brawl is Back: Expected Value Chart

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The Heroic Tavern Brawl makes its second appearance today. Last time around, it was a very popular Brawl, and there is no reason to believe this time will be any different.

In Heroic Brawl, you play a normal Standard constructed deck of your choice from your collection, and play until you either win twelve, or lose three, matches. This means it plays in similar fashion to Arena. Heroic Brawl is called Heroic for a reason though, it costs 1000 gold. 

The payout table is shown below:

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I have also created a table showing your expected payout. The full information as to the methodology can be found in the original post, but basically the table is accurate enough to be a good guide, other than around the extremes. (The corners of the image).

EHL4UPH.png

 

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I wish there was better information on participation rate from the first time this came through. I know it was a streamer's dream, but I certainly didn't bother with it. This close to an expansion, I especially don't want to sink my gold into an older set.

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Pay 1,000 gold to get smacked by another pirate warrior.

This brawl would be cool if it followed arena format. Basically, the same arena but with higher risks and rewards.

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They did it again , they use this horrible fake brawl to soak all players gold before expansion so you pay with money when it comes out since you have no gold. As I said before this brawl makes no sense to exist why pay 1000 gold or worse real money to play a boring stardand game that you can play normally, it's either pirate warrior or jade druid you'll find why pay 1000 gold to see them again.

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This should stop being a brawl! I just got the 5 brawl wins quest, worst week ever... Guess that will sit in my quest queue for a week.

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It isn't even entertaining to watch. The first one I watched quite a lot of streams and enjoyed it but now it is... meh. 

The very same brawl with special deck building rules or simply in the wild format would be actually fun to watch (and this really should be a separate game mode...) 

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1000 gold to play in a Standard queue is insane. If you don't win at least 3 times, which is entirely probable, then you waste 10 packs' worth of saved gold. The risk is not worth it, especially if your chances of lucking out 3 games in a  row and losing right away are decently possible.

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I have never understood the hate this brawl gets.  This brawl is obviously meant for experienced players, an it even warns people of this.  Is there anything wrong with having 3 weeks out of the year or whatever dedicated to a brawl for the people who dedicate a large amount of time to this game?  Yes, the rewards are gated, yes it costs a ton of gold, and yes I guess it sucks a little bit to not get to play a brawl for a week, but it is largely meant to both encourage only experienced and established players (ones who have the gold to throw around) to take try hard decks into the brawl to increase competition.  I guess my thing is, a lot of people grind to legend every month and they really don't get a whole lot out of it, Blizzard has a brawl directly targeted at these players and makes some money at it in the process, and the community just spews hate and vitriol at it like these are inherently bad things.  It would be ideal for them to just have it as an additional brawl once every few months, or what have you, but there might be some programming concerns with implementing this.

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18 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

I have never understood the hate this brawl gets.  This brawl is obviously meant for experienced players, an it even warns people of this.  Is there anything wrong with having 3 weeks out of the year or whatever dedicated to a brawl for the people who dedicate a large amount of time to this game?  Yes, the rewards are gated, yes it costs a ton of gold, and yes I guess it sucks a little bit to not get to play a brawl for a week, but it is largely meant to both encourage only experienced and established players (ones who have the gold to throw around) to take try hard decks into the brawl to increase competition.  I guess my thing is, a lot of people grind to legend every month and they really don't get a whole lot out of it, Blizzard has a brawl directly targeted at these players and makes some money at it in the process, and the community just spews hate and vitriol at it like these are inherently bad things.  It would be ideal for them to just have it as an additional brawl once every few months, or what have you, but there might be some programming concerns with implementing this.

Yeah, I don't get it either.

Players say that ' Heroic Brawl is started soon before a new expansion is released. This is because they want our gold.' This is as bad as an argument as 'there is a conspiracy against me' and it is pointless. Even though the time of this brawl could make you think like this, and maybe you're totally right about it, there is one point players are missing I think:

Nobody forces you to do anything.

The fact that it takes place of the normal brawl for a week may be annoying, but it is a rare occasion. Everyone should calm down.

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Yes, nobody is forced into it.

And if they would make this brawl let's say a few weeks AFTER a new expansion came out, not many would complain.

But this way, just before a new expansion starts?

LOL

This arena is meant for the experienced players? You mean the players who have with an absolut certainty every card from the current expansion they need? If they truely wanted to make it for these players, they would introduce the heroic brawl after the expansion. Not right before.

No, the one and only aim of Blizzard is to reduce the amount of gold available. Sure, nobody is forced. And it is not possible to predict what a specific player does. But it IS possible to make a prediction about the players in general. Blizzard can be sure that a certain percentage of the players will use the arena. Again, they can't say which player exactly will use it. But they don't need to be able to do this, it is enough that they know gold will be decreased. And again: Not every player who spends gold in this heroic brawl will buy more packs because he has less gold. Sure. But again: The following is certain: The less gold available, the more packs are sold.

This is called "pattern prediction" - you aren't able to say something about the behaviour an individual, but you are able to say something about the behaviour of a large group.

 

And that's why Blizzard gets the heat. Because many realize, that it isn't about giving something to good players (which would be totally ok, great even!). No, it is only to get more packs sold. And it is quite a cheap way to do it, because I think Blizzard hopes that I am dumb, that I won't realize their motives. That's why I feel insulted by Blizzard. Can't say if others feel the same - personally I do.

And that we don't get the "normal" Tavern-Brawl is just the icing on the cake.

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1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

And if they would make this brawl let's say a few weeks AFTER a new expansion came out, not many would complain.

Yes.  Yes they would.  The community will complain about anything.

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

This arena is meant for the experienced players? You mean the players who have with an absolut certainty every card from the current expansion they need? If they truely wanted to make it for these players, they would introduce the heroic brawl after the expansion. Not right before.

Or it lets experienced players stockpile gold and dust for the next expansion, ones who will actually get returns out of it.  On top of that, it is somewhat less competitive if it is done right after the next expansion drops since the meta is still wildly in flux.  

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

No, the one and only aim of Blizzard is to reduce the amount of gold available. Sure, nobody is forced. And it is not possible to predict what a specific player does. But it IS possible to make a prediction about the players in general. Blizzard can be sure that a certain percentage of the players will use the arena. Again, they can't say which player exactly will use it. But they don't need to be able to do this, it is enough that they know gold will be decreased. And again: Not every player who spends gold in this heroic brawl will buy more packs because he has less gold. Sure. But again: The following is certain: The less gold available, the more packs are sold.

This is called "pattern prediction" - you aren't able to say something about the behaviour an individual, but you are able to say something about the behaviour of a large group.

So you know exactly what blizzard is thinking?  Sure I imagine that reducing the gold in the economy plays a part in the placement of the brawl, but it probably isn't the only reason.  Casual players generally play less near the end of x pacs because things aren't as new or exciting, and the meta is generally stale and settled.  Also, I somehow doubt that gold is the primary way of paying for this brawl, I am guessing quite a few people who don't have a ton of gold to spend just pay the 10 dollars.

 

1 hour ago, WedgeAntilles said:

And that's why Blizzard gets the heat. Because many realize, that it isn't about giving something to good players (which would be totally ok, great even!). No, it is only to get more packs sold. And it is quite a cheap way to do it, because I think Blizzard hopes that I am dumb, that I won't realize their motives. That's why I feel insulted by Blizzard. Can't say if others feel the same - personally I do.

And that we don't get the "normal" Tavern-Brawl is just the icing on the cake.

This is exactly the hate and vitriol that I am talking about.  You just assume that there is no other reason why blizzard is doing this.  On top of that, even if this WAS the only reason they are doing it, is that really a bad thing?  Hard core players get something made for them, Blizzard increases the real money sales of the next x-pac, win/win.  This argument basically boils down to "LOOK BLIZZARD IS DOING SOMETHING IN THEIR OWN SELF INTEREST!  HOW DARE THEY!  TOO THE FORUMS!".  It honestly just feels childish to me.  

Edited by VaraTreledees

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5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

Yes.  Yes they would.  The community will complain about anything.

Some do that, yes.

 

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

Or it lets experienced players stockpile gold and dust for the next expansion, ones who will actually get returns out of it.  On top of that, it is somewhat less competitive if it is done right after the next expansion drops since the meta is still wildly in flux. 

Plz note that I wrote "A few weeks"

After 4 - 6 weeks there isn't flux any longer, the meta has established itself.

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

So you know exactly what blizzard is thinking?  Sure I imagine that reducing the gold in the economy plays a part in the placement of the brawl, but it probably isn't the only reason.  Casual players generally play less near the end of x pacs because things aren't as new or exciting, and the meta is generally stale and settled.  Also, I somehow doubt that gold is the primary way of paying for this brawl, I am guessing quite a few people who don't have a ton of gold to spend just pay the 10 dollars.

I do know how economies work, I studied it. They aim to get the 10 bucks too of course, but the timing has the only aim to reduce the gold. Blizzard could launch it all the time. But they do it in exactly that time-slot. Feel free to believe in coincidence. But if you study how our economy works, how companies are run, you will realize that the probability of me being wrong in this case is next to zero.

5 hours ago, VaraTreledees said:

This is exactly the hate and vitriol that I am talking about.  You just assume that there is no other reason why blizzard is doing this.  On top of that, even if this WAS the only reason they are doing it, is that really a bad thing?  Hard core players get something made for them, Blizzard increases the real money sales of the next x-pac, win/win.  This argument basically boils down to "LOOK BLIZZARD IS DOING SOMETHING IN THEIR OWN SELF INTEREST!  HOW DARE THEY!  TOO THE FORUMS!".  It honestly just feels childish to me.  

Like I said - Blizzard hopes and thinks that I am dumb. That I don't get what they are doing. I have no problem if a company does what is in it's own interest. But if the company think it can take me for a fool - well, I don't like it.

And take the increase of the prices: Every little thing is big on the battlenet news. Select a game, look for the news of this game - and you will find tons of stuff. But increase in prices? Nothing. Just hoping nobody notices. Again: Hoping customers are dumb as bread. I don' say that this has to bother you, you can say: "Who cares." or "well, every company tries to cheat you". But I don't like that.

 

But well, Blizzards policy seems to be working just fine.

 

Edited by WedgeAntilles

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