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Rubidium

Post-Nerf Meta Predictions

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With Hearthstone's Upcoming Balance changes the meta is likely to be shaken up quite a bit. Because guessing and predicting is fun, I'd like to predict the metagame that will evolve in the upcoming weeks following the nerfs, and see how accurate I am later on, as well as discuss with some people about which decks will be the strongest after these changes.

Tier 1:
Malygos/Token Druid only lost Yogg Saron to the nerfs and are already (one of) the strongest decks in the game, which is why they will continue to remain at the top of tier 1

Tempo Mage is a deck already high tier 2/low tier 1, and with some of its weaker matchups in the form of Midrange Hunter and Aggro Shaman getting nerfed as well as not losing much in the changes, it will be rising a few spots in Tier 1 towards the top.

Control (including C'thun variants) Warrior's biggest counter, Midrange hunter, is getting signficantly nerfed, which allows it to climb to tier 1. The changes to Execute do not hurt Control Warrior as much as it does other Warrior archetypes as they frequently will float mana anyway. There is also the potential for new gimmicks involving Charge with Sylvanas and Justicar Trueheart.

Midrange Shaman was dominating the ladder prior to the nerfs, but will be hurt fairly hard with the changes to Rockbiter and Tuskarr Totemic. It is likely neither of these cards will be used anymore, but Shaman has many other high quality cards that they can use anyway. Barnes will be stronger if Tuskarr gets cut, being able to pull Ak'Akir, spell damage, mana tide and flame-tongue for insane value.

Zoo Warlock was not hit too heavily by the nerfs, the change to it being the nerf to Abusive Sergeant. However, with one of its better matchups, Midrange Hunter likely to fall out of favor, and one of its weakest matchups against control warrior becoming larger in the meta do not do any favor for Zoo, although its good matchup against Tempo Mage and a Druid with no board clears mean it can hold its own in Tier 1.

Tier 2
Miracle Rogue players will rejoice at the sight of Aggro Shaman's nerfs. They did not lose anything to the nerfs as well, so the deck has greatly improved from its prior position in Tier 3.

Dragon Warrior has historically always been a solid deck in Wotog, and the execute nerfs do hurt it but not enough to push it completely out of favor, and has not changed very much aside from the execute nerfs.

Pirate Warrior is capable of extreme aggression and did not heavily rely on any of the nerfed cards. It may fill in the void of Aggro Shaman and has many solid matchups, with another advantage that players may be blown out when they mulligan too greedily against a warrior as they would usually expect a control warrior.

Aggro Shaman was hit much harder than Midrange Shaman by the changes, also feeling the pain on Abusive Sergeant. Lists that do not include Abusive Sergeant, Tuskarr Totemic and Thing from Below will start cropping up, as well as lists that aim to use Spirit Claws to push 9 damage as opposed to the traditional Doomhammer Rockbiter combinations alongside Ancestral Knowledge and Greater Overload synergy packages. It will likely still be a force in the meta, but not close to as common as it is now, or as common as its midrange counterparts. 

Murloc Paladin would be happy to see a meta with more control warriors and less midrange hunters, but will be held back by its poor matchup against Tempo Mage and Malygos Druid.

Beast Druid has lost virtually nothing from the changes, which lets it push through tier 3 to mid tier 2.

Control Mage previously was more of a joke deck, but may actually start becoming a real thing as Hunter and Aggro Shaman become less popular, and will be one of the weaker decks but still a deck in Tier 2.

Ramp Druid benefits from Abusive Sergeant's nerf and may be able to prey on many Tier 1 decks such as Tempo Mage, Control warrior and Malygos Druid, but its high dust cost will prevent it from ever becoming too popular.

Midrange Hunter will be hurt very badly by the nerf to call of the wild, as getting out call of the wild a turn later will be absolutely huge. The nerf to Abusive Sergeant does hurt some of its weaker matchups, and the potential for a meta for more control warriors does redeem it somewhat, which allows it to barely hang on as one of the weaker decks in Tier 2 as long as Control Warriors stay around.

Tier 3+
Secret Hunter
Any Priest deck
Hybrid Hunter
Thief Rogue
Freeze Mage
Dragon Paladin
Aggro Paladin

Patron Warrior

Many other decks that I just couldn't think of

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On 29.09.2016 at 11:11 AM, Rubidium said:

With Hearthstone's Upcoming Balance changes the meta is likely to be shaken up quite a bit. Because guessing and predicting is fun, I'd like to predict the metagame that will evolve in the upcoming weeks following the nerfs, and see how accurate I am later on, as well as discuss with some people about which decks will be the strongest after these changes.

Tier 1:
Malygos/Token Druid only lost Yogg Saron to the nerfs and are already (one of) the strongest decks in the game, which is why they will continue to remain at the top of tier 1

Tempo Mage is a deck already high tier 2/low tier 1, and with some of its weaker matchups in the form of Midrange Hunter and Aggro Shaman getting nerfed as well as not losing much in the changes, it will be rising a few spots in Tier 1 towards the top.

Control (including C'thun variants) Warrior's biggest counter, Midrange hunter, is getting signficantly nerfed, which allows it to climb to tier 1. The changes to Execute do not hurt Control Warrior as much as it does other Warrior archetypes as they frequently will float mana anyway. There is also the potential for new gimmicks involving Charge with Sylvanas and Justicar Trueheart.

Midrange Shaman was dominating the ladder prior to the nerfs, but will be hurt fairly hard with the changes to Rockbiter and Tuskarr Totemic. It is likely neither of these cards will be used anymore, but Shaman has many other high quality cards that they can use anyway. Barnes will be stronger if Tuskarr gets cut, being able to pull Ak'Akir, spell damage, mana tide and flame-tongue for insane value.

Zoo Warlock was not hit too heavily by the nerfs, the change to it being the nerf to Abusive Sergeant. However, with one of its better matchups, Midrange Hunter likely to fall out of favor, and one of its weakest matchups against control warrior becoming larger in the meta do not do any favor for Zoo, although its good matchup against Tempo Mage and a Druid with no board clears mean it can hold its own in Tier 1.

Tier 2
Miracle Rogue players will rejoice at the sight of Aggro Shaman's nerfs. They did not lose anything to the nerfs as well, so the deck has greatly improved from its prior position in Tier 3.

Dragon Warrior has historically always been a solid deck in Wotog, and the execute nerfs do hurt it but not enough to push it completely out of favor, and has not changed very much aside from the execute nerfs.

Pirate Warrior is capable of extreme aggression and did not heavily rely on any of the nerfed cards. It may fill in the void of Aggro Shaman and has many solid matchups, with another advantage that players may be blown out when they mulligan too greedily against a warrior as they would usually expect a control warrior.

Aggro Shaman was hit much harder than Midrange Shaman by the changes, also feeling the pain on Abusive Sergeant. Lists that do not include Abusive Sergeant, Tuskarr Totemic and Thing from Below will start cropping up, as well as lists that aim to use Spirit Claws to push 9 damage as opposed to the traditional Doomhammer Rockbiter combinations alongside Ancestral Knowledge and Greater Overload synergy packages. It will likely still be a force in the meta, but not close to as common as it is now, or as common as its midrange counterparts. 

Murloc Paladin would be happy to see a meta with more control warriors and less midrange hunters, but will be held back by its poor matchup against Tempo Mage and Malygos Druid.

Beast Druid has lost virtually nothing from the changes, which lets it push through tier 3 to mid tier 2.

Control Mage previously was more of a joke deck, but may actually start becoming a real thing as Hunter and Aggro Shaman become less popular, and will be one of the weaker decks but still a deck in Tier 2.

Ramp Druid benefits from Abusive Sergeant's nerf and may be able to prey on many Tier 1 decks such as Tempo Mage, Control warrior and Malygos Druid, but its high dust cost will prevent it from ever becoming too popular.

Midrange Hunter will be hurt very badly by the nerf to call of the wild, as getting out call of the wild a turn later will be absolutely huge. The nerf to Abusive Sergeant does hurt some of its weaker matchups, and the potential for a meta for more control warriors does redeem it somewhat, which allows it to barely hang on as one of the weaker decks in Tier 2 as long as Control Warriors stay around.

Tier 3+
Secret Hunter
Any Priest deck
Hybrid Hunter
Thief Rogue
Freeze Mage
Dragon Paladin
Aggro Paladin

Patron Warrior

Many other decks that I just couldn't think of

I don't think aggro shaman will just become tier 2. Loss of Tuskarr Totemic is huge, yes but it would affect aggro shaman as much as it affects midrange shaman at most. Thing from Below is a card, whose relationship with totems are similar as Thunder Bluff Valiant, so probably no aggro shamans without it anyways, and they still have the best opening. You can even add a Mana Tide Totem and without Tuskarr Totemic, you would still have 5 totems and hero power, and also card  draw. For Rockbiter Weapon, after Spirit Claws came around, I really think it lost its huge impact at board clear for aggro shaman, so unless there are 2 Doomhammers, Rockbiter Weapon nerf is not THAT influencing.

Midrange hunter and hybrid hunter (so, hunter in general) has lost an incredible card, according to Blizzard, Call of the Wild overshadows other hunter strategies ( like what? ), this is one of the reasons why  it was nerfed. It is really op for its mana cost. To conclude, midrange hunter is the class which is affected most by these nerfs. Maybe, some kind of a deathrattle hunter could see some play with minions like Savannah HighmaneSylvanas WindrunnerPrincess Huhuran and Cairne Bloodhoof, some kind of a control hunter with more removal than todays versions, probably not be in top 2 tiers though.

I hope you're right about miracle rogue because I love playing it.

In general, I don't think these nerfs will affect the meta drastically, Execute is just like Rubidium already mentioned, and I think Abusive Sergeant is not a card which is played because it has 2 attack, and since its other effect and low mana cost are still intact, I think it is just fine. For Charge, I kinda don't care what happened there but only serious effect for now seems like the worgen deck. And for, biggest bs Blizzard ever created, one and only Yogg-Saron, Hope's End, I hope the worst for it. As a part of both tempo mage and yogg druid (Duh!), it fills an important position in todays meta, but as these decks are really powerful and have strong win conditions even without it, time to time they will lose the matchups they are already disadvantegous at, and thats all.

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Jumping on the bandwagon for Miracle Rogue. Yes please!

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